Wednesday, February 28, 2018

PGA Draft & DraftKings Plays - WGC Mexico Championship

It's the WGC Mexico Championship Live From Naucalpan, Mexico

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It's the WGC Mexico Championship live from Naucalpan, Mexico just west of Mexico City! This event is played at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico. It was previously played at the Trump National Doral Golf course and was moved last year. That really only gives us one year of course history to look at. As a result, course history will not be anywhere near as much of a factor as it normally is in my analysis.

The course is very large, Par 71 over 7,300 yards. However, one thing to keep in mind is Mexico City is a very high altitude area. You know how baseballs fly out of the park in Coors Field in Denver? The same thing happens to golf balls in Mexico City. So while many players are going to look at the yardage and automatically target bomber golfers, the high altitude should allow this course to play like a shorter course. This event has no cut as well so all golfers will play into Sunday.

This week, I'm starting my research off with Vegas odds as always. My belief is Vegas knows way more than we do so I always factor what they have to say in ALL my research for ALL sports and golf is no exception. Next, I'm looking at strokes gained approach as opposed to strokes gained off the tee because I think accuracy is going to be more important than driving when you factor in the altitude. Birdie or better percentage is going to be HUGE for me because of the fact that this is a no cut event. There's 3 Par 5 holes on this course, so I will be looking at Par 5 scoring as well as Par 4 scoring. Finally, I am looking at recent form, which means how has the golfer done at his most recent tournaments. Course history will be very little of a factor for me this week, if at all.

If you are a premium member on Rotogrinders, I highly recommend the article "Searching For A Specialist" by Josh Culp. I also recommend that you look at the Projected Ownership. This article and the projected ownership reports are one of the only reasons why I pay for a Rotogrinders subscription as I like to do my own research as oppose to reading other people's takes. The reason why I like Josh's article though is because he looks at things like who is good on the type of greens the course is being played on, who is good on the type of distance the course is, who is good in the type of field strength this tournament has, who is good in no cut events, stuff like that. The projected ownership is valuable because it helps me identify golfers that I like that will be lower owned. Since I am a tournament player, I would rather play a golfer I like that's going to be lower owned than a golfer I like that's going to be higher owned.

So with that, let's take a look at my strategy for the two different sites:

Draft

This field is loaded with top talent, so this isn't the type of event I'm trying to be cute for on Draft. I'm taking the best available golfers with my picks. Dustin Johnson is my number one pick. He is Vegas favorite to win the event. Last year he was 5th on the tour in strokes gained approach, 12th in birdie or better percentage, 3rd in Par 5 scoring and 6th in Par 4 scoring. His numbers are great so far this season as well. He has the highest fantasy points scored average over his last three events than any golfer in the field. He's 3rd in this field on Poa Annua grass. He's 6th in this field in non cut events. There is zero reason not to take him first this week on Draft.

So as you can see, if you read my breakdown of Johnson I'm basically giving you everything I'm looking at when I decide on a player. So all you have to do is look at the same things and then you can decide for yourself which players you want to take based on the data that YOU believe is most important to YOU!

Here are my top 10 picks on Draft based on all the data points I look at:

Dustin Johnson
Justin Thomas
Jon Rahm
Jordan Spieth
Tommy Fleetwood
Phil Mickelson
Alex Noren
Rickie Fowler
Sergio Garcia
Justin Rose

DraftKings

For DraftKings I look at all the things I mentioned previously. The only difference is because there is a salary there is the question of value. Will that golfer produce enough points to justify the salary I'm paying. So to that end I'm looking for golfers who profile well for this event who can exceed their salary.

50% of my lineups will have one of my two favorite top tier players, which are Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas. I will have slightly more DJ over JT.

Some players that I like that will have decent ownership (20% or more) are:

Paul Casey
Matt Kuchar
Gary Woodland
Xander Schauffele

Some of my favorite player that will have lower ownership are:

Marc Leishman
Pat Perez
Webb Simpson
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Thomas Pieters
Alexander Noran

My two super punts this weekend are Chan Kim and Jorge Campillo. Won't have a lot of them but I'll take a couple of shots.

Good luck!



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