Wednesday, February 21, 2018

PGA Draft and DraftKings plays - The Honda Classic

It's the 2018 Honda Classic love from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

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It's the Honda Classic! The road to The Masters begins with this course so you have a lot of great golfers that are looking to compete. In particular there are a lot of great names on the European circuit that you want to pay attention to. One of the mistakes a lot of US players make is they forget the European guys and that can cost you.

This is a Par 70 course that's 7,140 yards. There are a lot of water hazards so accuracy is key. Trying to bomb your way through this course usually ends in disaster. Look for golfers with a solid approach game and solid putting.

Draft Strategy 
Ricky Fowler is the consensus number one option on Draft. He has the best odds to win according to Vegas. He won last year and had a top 10 finish the year before. He hasn't missed a cut here in the last 5 years he's played this event. He provides the safety that you're looking for with a number one pick and you have almost zero chance at getting him if you don't take him at number one.

Justin Thomas to me is where you want to go if you get the number 2 pick. Most drafts have him going 2. He is nowhere near as safe as Fowler as he's missed the cut 2 out of 3 times in the last 5 years. However , he has winning upside and his recent form is ridiculous. 7 out of 7 cuts made with 2 top 10 finishes. His worst finish in that span is 22nd. That form is difficult to ignore.

My next 3 is Rory Mcllroy, Sergio Garcia and Gary Woodland in that order. Garcia has the best course history out of the 3. However, I give the slight edge to Rory because he's the better golfer.

6th to 10th for me is Hatton, Fleetwood, Noren, Harman and Knox. Once again, do not sleep on these European golfers. They can play and any one of them can pull out a victory here. If you take out the Farmers open Brian Harman has the best form of any golfer in this field. He's made 6 out of 7 cuts and has made the top 10 in 5 out of the last 7 events.

Adam Scott fits very well on this course. I would definitely try to get some shares of him on Draft. Jason Dufner is also a great play. He's been going all over the map though. I've see him taken as high as the 3rd overall pick, which is WAY too high in my view. I've also seen him not drafted at all in a 6 person draft which is equally as insane. I'm fading Tiger Woods in 3 person contests. However, I will have some shares in 4 person, 6 Person and 8 person contests. Finally, people are sleeping on Russell Knox on Draft right now. I've been getting him in the 15th to 20th range in many drafts with no problem. He's a top 10 play this weekend in my view.

DraftKings Plays
Ricky Fowler is definitely in play for me this weekend. However, it's pretty rare that a golfer wins a tournament back to back so I will have no more than 20% of my lineups with him in it. Rory was only 8% owned last week. I don't mind taking some more shots with him this week. I may play Justin Thomas if I can fit him in but he's not a must play for me. I expect Sergio Garcia to be the chalk in the top tier pricing. He's a good play but I'm going to fade him and hope he misses value. Noren is just priced too high for me. I can't pay over 10k for him especially when the only time he played here he missed the cut.

My favorite play in the 9k range is Tommy Fleetwood. He didn't perform as well as I expected better but I don't mind going back to him this week and hoping his last week's performance takes others off him. Gary Woodland will be owned but he's fine. I absolutely want exposure to Russell Knox this weekend at $9,000.

Like last week the mid range is once again loaded. Adam Scott is someone I will have at least 50% exposure to at $7,700. I don't mind me some Tiger Woods at $8,200. I like Brian Harman at $8,900 if I can fit him in. I like Rafael Cabrera-bello this week at $8,100. I also like Russell Henley at $7,70].

There's some good value in the value tier of pricing as well. Patton Kizzire is absolutely in play for me at $7,300. I like Graeme McDowell at $7,300. Chris Kirk at $7,200 is in play. I like Billy Horschel at $7,100. I also like Ian Poulter at $7,200.

If you are looking for punts take a look at Wesley Bryan at $6,800. Look at Sean O'Haire at $6,800. Also, take a look at Morgan Hoffman at $6,700.

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