Wednesday, February 14, 2018

PGA Draft and DraftKings Plays - Genesis Open

It's the Genesis Open Live from Los Angeles California!
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It's the Genesis Open Live from the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles California. This is a long course, Par 71, 7322 yards. Top 70 and ties advance after the 2nd round. If more than 78 golfers make the cut, those tied for the final spot will the MDF rule applied to them and will not play the final two rounds.

Draft Strategy
On Draft I like to keep it simple and target the golfers who have the best Vegas Odds to win the tournament. I will also look at course history, recent form and strokes gained statistics.

Dustin Johnson is without question my number one pick on Draft. He's pretty much everybody else's number one pick too. I haven't had a single draft where he wasn't taken number one. Don't be cute. If you have the number one pick take Johnson. Jordan Spieth has been going 2 or 3 in most drafts. I have him 2nd on my list. Rory Mcllroy is my 3rd pick. He's been going anywhere from 4th to 8th in most of my drafts. After that it's Justin Thomas followed by Phil Mickelson.

6th to 10th for me is Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Chez Reavie, Daniel Berger and Thomas Pieters. That's my top 10 for Draft.

Some other golfers that I want to point out. I have Tiger Woods 11th. He's been going anywhere from 9tj to 20th in my drafts. Bubba Watson I have 16th, which means I'm fading him in 3 man contests. He's got really good course history but he hasn't finished better than 35th in his last 5 events. He's been goik g in the 30s so if you want him in the larger drafts you should be able to get him. 

If you want Mark Leishman on Draft you're going to have to put him in the top 10. His recent form is great but his course history hasn't been that hot. I'm not willing to invest a top 10 pick in him. Pat Perez has been going in the late teens to early 20s. I have him 21st. However I haven't been getting him because there's been other golfers I like more with better course history that I've been able to get like Branden Grace, Bubba Watson and Chez Reavie.

Draftkings Plays
If you're only playing one lineup in GPP you have a really tough decision to make. Dustin Johnson is in such a fantastic spot. Not playing him seems like a terrible decision. The problem is he's going to be so highly owned that you kind of have to fade him in GPP. I'm going to keep it simple, play him in 50% of my lineups and fade him in the other 50%.

Other than Johnson I really have no interest in most of the top tier on DraftKings. The high pricing combined with mediocre course history makes them unplayable to me in a salary cap format. The one guy I am willing to take some shots on above 10K is Rory Mcllroy. I expect him to be at about 10% so I'll go 20% and be slightly ahead of the field.

Tommy Fleetwood at $9500 has no course history here. However, his recent form has been on fire. I'll have some exposure but not looking to do anything more than match the field with him. Tiger Woods, I'll play in 1 out of 10 lineups but that's about it.

The mid tier is what I believe will make or break us this weekend. I am completely fading Pat Perez and Mark Leishman on DraftKings. It's risky with their recent form but I don't like their course history here and you have to take some chances in GPP.

I LOVE Chez Reavie this week and will have massive exposure to him. Even more than Dustin Johnson. Brendan Steele is safe with top 10 upside. I'll have decent exposure to him. I'm also all over Jason Kokrak. He's in a great spot with a great price and won't be too highly owned.

Other Golfers I will have exposure to include Ollie Schniederjans, Charles Howell, Patrick Cantlay, Jhonattan Vegas, Charley Hoffman and Keegan Bradley.

If you are looking for cheap punts take a look at
Scott Brown for $7,000. He came in 2nd last year here. Martin Laird at $6,900 has an 8th and 11th place finish the last two years. Brandon Harkins at $6,800 has great recent form. I also like Cameron Triangle at $6,700.

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