Thursday, February 1, 2018

DraftKings EuroLeague Basketball - Thursday February 1st 2018

It's a 5 game slate in Euroleague basketball today. Here's my breakdown of the teams playing and the players that I like today on DraftKings.

Picture By SD Dirk [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons


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We have EuroLeague action today! It's a full slate with 5 teams going at it!

Let's start with a breakdown of the implied totals and offense vs defense matchups at the guard and forward positions:

EuroLeague Schedule Odds & Lines
Road TeamHome TeamLineOver/UnderAway TotalHome TotalGame Time (ET)
ValenciaAnadolu EfesEFS -7157758212:00 PM
Real MadridCSKA MoscowCSK -5169.582.2587.2512:00 PM
Maccabi Tel AvivZalgiris KaunasZAL -5.5160.577.5831:00 PM
Fenerbahce UlkerOlympiakosOLY -2.5146.578791:00 PM
Olympia MilanoFC BarcelonaFCB -8.5165.578.5872:00 PM
Implied TotalsGOPRKFOPRK
CSKA Moscow87.2538
FC Barcelona87167
Zalgiris Kaunas831410
Real Madrid82.25113
Anadolu Efes8266
Olympiakos7993
Olympia Milano78.5132
Fenerbahce Ulker7871
Maccabi Tel Aviv77.5129
Valencia751116

Interesting data today. CSKA Moscow has the highest implied total on the entire slate. However, it has a tough matchup at the guard position and average matchup at the forward position. FC Barcelona has the 2nd highest implied total, but the best guard matchup on the entire slate. What's also interesting is the two teams with the lowest implied totals, Maccabi Tel Aviv and Valencia both have good to great matchups at both guard and forward positions. I don't normally like to target teams with the lowest implied total, but I may want to get some exposure to them and avoid a team like Fenerbahce Ulker who has mediocre to bad matchups.

Let's take a look at who I like today at guard and forward.

Before I begin, let's talk about somebody I do not like today and that is Luka Doncic. He is a game time decision today due to an ankle injury in yesterday's practice. He is traveling with the team but the coach isn't sure if he's going to play. Even if he does play, Real Madrid has the worst guard matchup on the entire slate today. When they played earlier this season, Real Madrid won. Doncic scored 30 fantasy points, which is below his season average of 33.8 fantasy points per game. 

I'm also fading the CSKA Moscow guards as well. De Colo and Rodriguez have a tough matchup. When they last played Real Madrid, they scored 16.5 and 7.5 fantasy points respectively. At their prices I have no interest in any performance coming anything close to what happened last time.

Guards

If you are paying up for guard, I recommend that you go with one of the following options:
  • Kevin Pangos (ZAL) $12,300
  • Pierre Johnson (MTA) $12,200 
  • Thomas Heurtel (FCB) $10,800
  • Erick Green (VBC) $9,800 (They only have 3 guards healthy)
In the mid-tier I like the following options:
  • Andrew Goudelock (AXM) $8,900
  • Facundo Campazzo (RMB) $7,400 (Only if Doncic is out)
In the value tier, I like the following:
  • DeAndre Kane (MTA) $5,800
  • Vasilije Micic (ZAL) $5,600
  • Arturas Milaknis (ZAL) $5,100
  • Pau Ribas (FCB) $4,700
  • Rafa Martinez (VBC) $4,700 (They only have 3 guards healthy)
  • Jaycee Carroll (RMB) $4,000 (Especially if Doncic is out)
  • Sergi Garcia (VBC) $3,800 (They only have 3 guards healthy)
Forwards

If you are paying up for forward, I recommend that you go with one of the following options:
  • Will Clyburn (CSK) $9,900 (scored over 30 fp last time they played)
In the mid-tier I like the following options:
  • Tibor Pleiss (VBC) $9,000
  • Jonah Bolden (MTA) $8,400 (Jankunas out makes matchup better)
  • Trey Thompkins (RMB) $8,300
  • Walter Tavares (RMB) $8,000
  • Aaron White (ZAL) $7,400
  • Deshaun Thomas (MTA) $7,400
  • Alex Tyus (MTA) $7,200
In the value tier, I like the following:
  • Zoran Dragic (EFS) $6,500
  • Ante Tomic (FCB) $6,400
  • Rudy Fernandez (RMB) $6,300
  • Fernando San Emeterio (VBC) $5,500
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