Wednesday, February 28, 2018

PGA Draft & DraftKings Plays - WGC Mexico Championship

It's the WGC Mexico Championship Live From Naucalpan, Mexico

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It's the WGC Mexico Championship live from Naucalpan, Mexico just west of Mexico City! This event is played at the Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico. It was previously played at the Trump National Doral Golf course and was moved last year. That really only gives us one year of course history to look at. As a result, course history will not be anywhere near as much of a factor as it normally is in my analysis.

The course is very large, Par 71 over 7,300 yards. However, one thing to keep in mind is Mexico City is a very high altitude area. You know how baseballs fly out of the park in Coors Field in Denver? The same thing happens to golf balls in Mexico City. So while many players are going to look at the yardage and automatically target bomber golfers, the high altitude should allow this course to play like a shorter course. This event has no cut as well so all golfers will play into Sunday.

This week, I'm starting my research off with Vegas odds as always. My belief is Vegas knows way more than we do so I always factor what they have to say in ALL my research for ALL sports and golf is no exception. Next, I'm looking at strokes gained approach as opposed to strokes gained off the tee because I think accuracy is going to be more important than driving when you factor in the altitude. Birdie or better percentage is going to be HUGE for me because of the fact that this is a no cut event. There's 3 Par 5 holes on this course, so I will be looking at Par 5 scoring as well as Par 4 scoring. Finally, I am looking at recent form, which means how has the golfer done at his most recent tournaments. Course history will be very little of a factor for me this week, if at all.

If you are a premium member on Rotogrinders, I highly recommend the article "Searching For A Specialist" by Josh Culp. I also recommend that you look at the Projected Ownership. This article and the projected ownership reports are one of the only reasons why I pay for a Rotogrinders subscription as I like to do my own research as oppose to reading other people's takes. The reason why I like Josh's article though is because he looks at things like who is good on the type of greens the course is being played on, who is good on the type of distance the course is, who is good in the type of field strength this tournament has, who is good in no cut events, stuff like that. The projected ownership is valuable because it helps me identify golfers that I like that will be lower owned. Since I am a tournament player, I would rather play a golfer I like that's going to be lower owned than a golfer I like that's going to be higher owned.

So with that, let's take a look at my strategy for the two different sites:

Draft

This field is loaded with top talent, so this isn't the type of event I'm trying to be cute for on Draft. I'm taking the best available golfers with my picks. Dustin Johnson is my number one pick. He is Vegas favorite to win the event. Last year he was 5th on the tour in strokes gained approach, 12th in birdie or better percentage, 3rd in Par 5 scoring and 6th in Par 4 scoring. His numbers are great so far this season as well. He has the highest fantasy points scored average over his last three events than any golfer in the field. He's 3rd in this field on Poa Annua grass. He's 6th in this field in non cut events. There is zero reason not to take him first this week on Draft.

So as you can see, if you read my breakdown of Johnson I'm basically giving you everything I'm looking at when I decide on a player. So all you have to do is look at the same things and then you can decide for yourself which players you want to take based on the data that YOU believe is most important to YOU!

Here are my top 10 picks on Draft based on all the data points I look at:

Dustin Johnson
Justin Thomas
Jon Rahm
Jordan Spieth
Tommy Fleetwood
Phil Mickelson
Alex Noren
Rickie Fowler
Sergio Garcia
Justin Rose

DraftKings

For DraftKings I look at all the things I mentioned previously. The only difference is because there is a salary there is the question of value. Will that golfer produce enough points to justify the salary I'm paying. So to that end I'm looking for golfers who profile well for this event who can exceed their salary.

50% of my lineups will have one of my two favorite top tier players, which are Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas. I will have slightly more DJ over JT.

Some players that I like that will have decent ownership (20% or more) are:

Paul Casey
Matt Kuchar
Gary Woodland
Xander Schauffele

Some of my favorite player that will have lower ownership are:

Marc Leishman
Pat Perez
Webb Simpson
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Thomas Pieters
Alexander Noran

My two super punts this weekend are Chan Kim and Jorge Campillo. Won't have a lot of them but I'll take a couple of shots.

Good luck!



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Monday, February 26, 2018

NBA Drafters, Draft & DraftKings Plays - Tuesday February 27th 2018

We have a 6 game slate of NBA action tonight!

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We have a 6 game slate of NBA action tonight! Here are the plays that I like on Drafters, Draft and DraftKings!

Drafters
Hopefully you read my article yesterday and saw that I had Anthony Davis listed as number one. If you did and you picked him, you were well on your way to having a good night on Drafters. If position scarcity wasn't a thing, Nikola Jokic would be my number one pick on the slate tonight. He has a juicy matchup tonight against the Clippers and he has the highest fantasy points average increase over the last 5 games compared to his season average. However, the reality is you cannot ignore the big gap at small forward, which is why LeBron James is the number one option tonight who has a juicy matchup of his own against the Brooklyn Nets.. Giannis Antetokounmpo is number two for the same reason making "Joker" the number 3 option on Drafters. I like Joel Embiid next followed by Damian Lillard. Even though I think Lillard has more upside, he's only PG eligible on Drafters, whereas Embiid can play PF and C, which is why I give him the slight edge. Ben Simmons is next with his unique SF/PG eligibility. Bradley Beal gets the slight edge over Kemba Walker because Beal is SG eligible, which is a more scarce position than Kemba's PG eligibility. Finally, I like Eric Bledsoe and Tobias Harris although in larger draft pools, I would consider taking DeAndre Jordan over Harris if I needed a center.

Draft
My first three picks are the same on Draft as Drafters, James, Antetokounmpo and Jokic. However, for 4th, I want Lillard over Embiid. Simmons plays guard only on Draft, and as a guard, I like Kemba Walker and Bradley Beal before I take him. Finally, for Forwards, I'll take Tobias Harris and Otto Porter Jr. In drafts larger than head to head, I'll take Dwight Howard over the both of them.

DraftKings
My superstars that I'm spending up for tonight are LeBron James and Nikola Jokic. Wilson Chandler's price is creeping up but he's got a good matchup tonight and is worth taking a shot as long as Paul Millsap remains out. The young Bulls are all worth a look. The problem is they have shot up in price. I would focus on the forwards like Nwaba (although I don't like his price), Markkanen, Portis and Valentine. Jarrett Allen is definitely worth a shot against Tristian Kardashian who has been pillow soft defensively this year. 

Just a reminder, I'm writing this before I go to bed on Monday night, technically early Tuesday morning on the East Coast so a lot can change. This is just to help you get started and point you in the right direction!

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Sunday, February 25, 2018

NBA Drafters, Draft & DraftKings Plays - Monday February 26th 2018

We have a 10 game slate of NBA action tonight!

Picture By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (James Harden) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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We have a 10 game slate of NBA action tonight! Here are the plays that I like on Drafters, Draft and DraftKings

Drafters
Anthony Davis is the clear cut number one choice for me on Drafters. He's the hottest fantasy player in the game and has the best matchup in a game that his team is the favorite to win that might not necessarily be a blowout. Sign me up. I like Westbrook over Harden as he has the better matchup and isn't playing in a back to back. Kevin Durant is next, followed by Victor Oladipo over Stephen Curry. Then I like Paul George despite that awful performance against the Warriors. Orlando is the opposite of the Warriors so I'm fine with him today. I'm taking Karl-Anthony Towns over Andre Drummond and after that I like Draymond Green.

Draft
For Draft, I literally like the same order that I like for Drafters. The only diference is I would take Towns and Drummond over George and I'll take George over Draymond Green.

DraftKings
On DraftKings, my two studs that I'm playing tonight are Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook. I'm looking for 25% exposure to each. My other top tier play is Paul George who I'm going to have a lot of exposure to against the Magic. People are going to be scared to play him after that dud against the Warriors, but it's the WARRIORS! Play him with confidence tonight.

I like TJ Warren in a great matchup against the Pelicans. I like Kyle Lowry who has hit 6x value 40% of the time over the last 4 weeks. I like Serge Ibaka in a good matchup against the Pistons. I like D'Angelo Russell against the Bulls, which is a good matchup for him. The Brooklyn guard situation is always a little risky though as they have a pretty crowded backcourt.

As for punts, I like Trey Burke on the Knicks. I expect the Warriors to blow them out and he could get some extended run. He averages 1.16 fantasy points per minute so when he gets playing time, he delivers. I like Brook Lopez as a punt tonight against the Hawks who are straight hot garbage. Finally, Cameron Payne has looked good in 2 games as the backup point guard for the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls have made it very clear that they are playing the young talent so I don't mind getting some exposure to him.

This is where I am as of late last night. As news breaks, this could change so make sure you check back throughout the day to see if I'm still on these plays! Good luck!

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Thursday, February 22, 2018

NBA Drafters, Draft & DraftKings Plays - Thursday February 22nd 2018

Picture By Erik Drost from United States (Russell Westbrook) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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We have a 6 game slate tonight of NBA action. Here's my approach to the three sites:

Drafters
Russell Westbrook is the number one option at PG. Next is James and Durant. Draft at SF first then PF. George is next at SF first then SG. Next is Embiid at PF then C. Curry is next at SG then PG followed by Beal at SG. Walker is next at PG followed by Simmons at SF then PG. Finally Howard at PF then C.

Draft
Russell Westbrook is the number one option tonight due to his high ceiling and gap compared to the other guards. James and Durant are next, followed by George and Embiid. Beal, Walker, Curry and Simmons are next and then for Center you can take Howard.
DraftKings 
The top tier plays I'm looking to get exposure to tonight are Joel Embiid and Bradley Beal 50% or more. I'm also looking at Lebron James and Russell Westbrook at 25%

Other plays I like tonight are Lou Williams, D'angelo Russell, Christiano De Silva Felicio, and Robert Covington. A couple of low owned players I'm taking a chance on tonight is Buddy Hield and Bobby Portis.

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Wednesday, February 21, 2018

PGA Draft and DraftKings plays - The Honda Classic

It's the 2018 Honda Classic love from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

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It's the Honda Classic! The road to The Masters begins with this course so you have a lot of great golfers that are looking to compete. In particular there are a lot of great names on the European circuit that you want to pay attention to. One of the mistakes a lot of US players make is they forget the European guys and that can cost you.

This is a Par 70 course that's 7,140 yards. There are a lot of water hazards so accuracy is key. Trying to bomb your way through this course usually ends in disaster. Look for golfers with a solid approach game and solid putting.

Draft Strategy 
Ricky Fowler is the consensus number one option on Draft. He has the best odds to win according to Vegas. He won last year and had a top 10 finish the year before. He hasn't missed a cut here in the last 5 years he's played this event. He provides the safety that you're looking for with a number one pick and you have almost zero chance at getting him if you don't take him at number one.

Justin Thomas to me is where you want to go if you get the number 2 pick. Most drafts have him going 2. He is nowhere near as safe as Fowler as he's missed the cut 2 out of 3 times in the last 5 years. However , he has winning upside and his recent form is ridiculous. 7 out of 7 cuts made with 2 top 10 finishes. His worst finish in that span is 22nd. That form is difficult to ignore.

My next 3 is Rory Mcllroy, Sergio Garcia and Gary Woodland in that order. Garcia has the best course history out of the 3. However, I give the slight edge to Rory because he's the better golfer.

6th to 10th for me is Hatton, Fleetwood, Noren, Harman and Knox. Once again, do not sleep on these European golfers. They can play and any one of them can pull out a victory here. If you take out the Farmers open Brian Harman has the best form of any golfer in this field. He's made 6 out of 7 cuts and has made the top 10 in 5 out of the last 7 events.

Adam Scott fits very well on this course. I would definitely try to get some shares of him on Draft. Jason Dufner is also a great play. He's been going all over the map though. I've see him taken as high as the 3rd overall pick, which is WAY too high in my view. I've also seen him not drafted at all in a 6 person draft which is equally as insane. I'm fading Tiger Woods in 3 person contests. However, I will have some shares in 4 person, 6 Person and 8 person contests. Finally, people are sleeping on Russell Knox on Draft right now. I've been getting him in the 15th to 20th range in many drafts with no problem. He's a top 10 play this weekend in my view.

DraftKings Plays
Ricky Fowler is definitely in play for me this weekend. However, it's pretty rare that a golfer wins a tournament back to back so I will have no more than 20% of my lineups with him in it. Rory was only 8% owned last week. I don't mind taking some more shots with him this week. I may play Justin Thomas if I can fit him in but he's not a must play for me. I expect Sergio Garcia to be the chalk in the top tier pricing. He's a good play but I'm going to fade him and hope he misses value. Noren is just priced too high for me. I can't pay over 10k for him especially when the only time he played here he missed the cut.

My favorite play in the 9k range is Tommy Fleetwood. He didn't perform as well as I expected better but I don't mind going back to him this week and hoping his last week's performance takes others off him. Gary Woodland will be owned but he's fine. I absolutely want exposure to Russell Knox this weekend at $9,000.

Like last week the mid range is once again loaded. Adam Scott is someone I will have at least 50% exposure to at $7,700. I don't mind me some Tiger Woods at $8,200. I like Brian Harman at $8,900 if I can fit him in. I like Rafael Cabrera-bello this week at $8,100. I also like Russell Henley at $7,70].

There's some good value in the value tier of pricing as well. Patton Kizzire is absolutely in play for me at $7,300. I like Graeme McDowell at $7,300. Chris Kirk at $7,200 is in play. I like Billy Horschel at $7,100. I also like Ian Poulter at $7,200.

If you are looking for punts take a look at Wesley Bryan at $6,800. Look at Sean O'Haire at $6,800. Also, take a look at Morgan Hoffman at $6,700.


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Sunday, February 18, 2018

MMA UFC Plays - UFC Fight Night 126

"The Cowboy" is in the Main Event tonight in UFC Fight Night 126

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We have a 12 fight card on UFC Fight Night 126. Since this has been a pretty busy weekend for me, I'm just going to give you my ratings for each fighter tonight as follows:

  • 4 stars - Love them as a play this event.
  • 3 stars - Like them as a play this event.
  • 2 stars - Might not play them. If I do, I'll play them as a one off.
  • 1 star - I will not play this fighter at all this event.
Let's start with the top tier fighters $8,600 and above
  • Jared Gordon $9,300 - 2 stars
  • Sage Northcutt $9,200 - 3 stars
  • Oskar Piechota $9,100 - 3 stars
  • James Vick $9,000 - 4 stars
  • Geoff Neal $8,900 - 2 stars
  • Alex Morono $8,800 - 4 stars
  • Brandon Davis $8,700 - 2 stars
  • Thiago Alves $8,600 - 3 stars
Next, let's look at the mid tier fighters, which are priced from $7,700 to $8,500
  • Lucie Pudilova $8,500 - 1 star
  • Donald Cerrone $8,400 - 3 stars
  • Marcin Tybura $8,300 - 2 stars
  • Joby Sanchez $8,200 - 1 star
  • Roberto Sanchez $8,000 - 2 stars
  • Derrick Lewis $7,900 - 3 stars
  • Yancy Medeiros $7,800 - 2 stars
  • Sarah Moras $7,700 - 1 star
Finally, let's look at the value tier fighters priced $7,600 and below
  • Curtis Millender $7,600 - 1 star
  • Steven Peterson $7,500 - 3 stars
  • Joshua Burkman $7,400 - 1 star
  • Brian Camozzi $7,300 - 3 stars
  • Francisco Trinaldo $7,200 - 1 star
  • Tim Williams $7,100 - 2 stars
  • Thibault Gouti $7,000 - 1 star
  • Diego Ferreira $6,900 - 2 stars
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

PGA Draft and DraftKings Plays - Genesis Open

It's the Genesis Open Live from Los Angeles California!
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It's the Genesis Open Live from the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles California. This is a long course, Par 71, 7322 yards. Top 70 and ties advance after the 2nd round. If more than 78 golfers make the cut, those tied for the final spot will the MDF rule applied to them and will not play the final two rounds.

Draft Strategy
On Draft I like to keep it simple and target the golfers who have the best Vegas Odds to win the tournament. I will also look at course history, recent form and strokes gained statistics.

Dustin Johnson is without question my number one pick on Draft. He's pretty much everybody else's number one pick too. I haven't had a single draft where he wasn't taken number one. Don't be cute. If you have the number one pick take Johnson. Jordan Spieth has been going 2 or 3 in most drafts. I have him 2nd on my list. Rory Mcllroy is my 3rd pick. He's been going anywhere from 4th to 8th in most of my drafts. After that it's Justin Thomas followed by Phil Mickelson.

6th to 10th for me is Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Chez Reavie, Daniel Berger and Thomas Pieters. That's my top 10 for Draft.

Some other golfers that I want to point out. I have Tiger Woods 11th. He's been going anywhere from 9tj to 20th in my drafts. Bubba Watson I have 16th, which means I'm fading him in 3 man contests. He's got really good course history but he hasn't finished better than 35th in his last 5 events. He's been goik g in the 30s so if you want him in the larger drafts you should be able to get him. 

If you want Mark Leishman on Draft you're going to have to put him in the top 10. His recent form is great but his course history hasn't been that hot. I'm not willing to invest a top 10 pick in him. Pat Perez has been going in the late teens to early 20s. I have him 21st. However I haven't been getting him because there's been other golfers I like more with better course history that I've been able to get like Branden Grace, Bubba Watson and Chez Reavie.

Draftkings Plays
If you're only playing one lineup in GPP you have a really tough decision to make. Dustin Johnson is in such a fantastic spot. Not playing him seems like a terrible decision. The problem is he's going to be so highly owned that you kind of have to fade him in GPP. I'm going to keep it simple, play him in 50% of my lineups and fade him in the other 50%.

Other than Johnson I really have no interest in most of the top tier on DraftKings. The high pricing combined with mediocre course history makes them unplayable to me in a salary cap format. The one guy I am willing to take some shots on above 10K is Rory Mcllroy. I expect him to be at about 10% so I'll go 20% and be slightly ahead of the field.

Tommy Fleetwood at $9500 has no course history here. However, his recent form has been on fire. I'll have some exposure but not looking to do anything more than match the field with him. Tiger Woods, I'll play in 1 out of 10 lineups but that's about it.

The mid tier is what I believe will make or break us this weekend. I am completely fading Pat Perez and Mark Leishman on DraftKings. It's risky with their recent form but I don't like their course history here and you have to take some chances in GPP.

I LOVE Chez Reavie this week and will have massive exposure to him. Even more than Dustin Johnson. Brendan Steele is safe with top 10 upside. I'll have decent exposure to him. I'm also all over Jason Kokrak. He's in a great spot with a great price and won't be too highly owned.

Other Golfers I will have exposure to include Ollie Schniederjans, Charles Howell, Patrick Cantlay, Jhonattan Vegas, Charley Hoffman and Keegan Bradley.

If you are looking for cheap punts take a look at
Scott Brown for $7,000. He came in 2nd last year here. Martin Laird at $6,900 has an 8th and 11th place finish the last two years. Brandon Harkins at $6,800 has great recent form. I also like Cameron Triangle at $6,700.

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mybookie: http://bit.ly/MastersOfDFS
50% Signup Bonus on initial deposits

XBet: http://bit.ly/XBMasters
100% SIgnup Bonus up to $300 on initial deposit.

Try out DRAFT risk free! Deposit a minimum of $10 and get a free $3 entry! You will also be qualified for special DFSMasters promotions that we do in the future. If we get 50 signups between now and the end of the month we will host a $150 Freeroll Tournament
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Looking for another fantasy site to try out with a unique format? Try DraftBoard! You can play some pretty creative lineups on this format including multiple centers! Deposit a minimum of $10 and receive a $5 credit for free! Deposit a minimum of $20 and receive a $10 credit for free! 
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