Wednesday, January 3, 2018

PGA Golf Draft & DraftKings Plays - Sentry Tournament of Champions

This weekend GOLF is back!!! We have the 2018 Sentry Tournament of Champions live from the Kapalua Resort in Hawaii.

Picture By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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Golf is back! Golf is one of my favorite fantasy sports to play! I don't play golf at all and I rarely watch it on television. However I LOVE playing it in daily fantasy!

I'm going to give you a breakdown of what golfers I am targeting on both Draft and DraftKings.

The Sentry Tournament of Champions is kind of like the All Star game for PGA. You have 34 of the top golfers in the world who are invited to Hawaii to participate in this event.

This contest is a NO CUT event. This is important because it means that no matter what golfer you select, they will get 4 rounds of scoring as long as they don't withdraw. 

The course is a 7452 yard Par 73 course. It is an easy course so expect low scores and lots of birdies.

When I analyze PGA the first thing I take a look at is the Las Vegas Odds to win the tournament. Casinos are multi billion dollar enterprises that continue to operate successfully based on their ability to accurately set the odds to win. So I always begin my research with Vegas.

We have 34 golfers in this event. Odds start as low as 5 to 1 and go all the way to 300 to 1. After looking at the odds I am fading (not playing) any golfer that has 80 to 1 odds to win or worse. I'll let others throw their money away looking for a hope and a prayer. I would rather invest my money in golfers that actually have a legitimate shot to win or at least hit top 10.

On DraftKings that means Patton Kizzire is a fade for me at $7300. That also means EVERY golfer on DraftKings under $7000 is a fade for me with the exception of Kyle Stanley at $6800 who has 60 to 1 odds to win.

Next I look at course history and where each golfer remaining finished in the last 8 PGA events that took place. The top golfers on this slate all have excellent course history. However there are some values here as well. Brendan Steele at $7400 finished 6th here and finished 1st and 13th in the two most recent events he played. Pat Perez at $8000 finished 3rd, has played in 4 out of the last 8 events and has two top 10 finishes. Cameron Steele never played here but has two top 5 finishes in the two events he played out of the 8 most recent ones.

Next I look at strokes gained stats for the participants. I look at Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green and Putting. I also look at Birdie or Better Percentage as well as Bogey Avoidance. Finally depending on the course I look at Par 5 scoring and Par 4 scoring.

After looking at all the stats I rank the top 15 golfers for my Draft. 15 golfers are taken in the largest contests available on Draft this weekend 3 person drafts. Here are the golfers rankings for Draft. With PGA, you can just rank the golfers according to your liking and auto draft.

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Top 15 Golfers
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Justin Thomas
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Hideki Matsuyama 
  • Jon Rahm
  • Brooks Koepka 
  • Marc Leishman
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Pat Perez
  • Daniel Berger
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Cameron Smith
  • Brendan Steele 
For DraftKings I use the data I researched along with salary and projected ownership to build my lineups. I'm going to highlight the golfers I like on DraftKings by tier. 

I'm playing 9 lineups. If you're playing a lot more you might want to expand your player pool. You can add any golfer who meets the odds criteria I defined above. If you're playing less you should have a smaller player pool.

Top Tier ($9,800 And above)
  • Jordan Spieth $10,900 - Heavy Exposure
  • Ricky Fowler $10,500 - Light Exposure
  • Dustin Johnson $10,300 - Heavy Exposure
  • Hideki Matsuyama $9,800 - Light Exposure 
Mid Tier ($8,000 to $9,800)
  • Jon Rahm $9,500 - Light Exposure 
  • Brooks Koepka $9,400 - Light Exposure 
  • Marc Leishman $9,000 - Light Exposure 
  • Patrick Cantlay $8,600 - Heavy Exposure
  • Xander Schauffele $8,500 - Light Exposure 
  • Kevin Kisner $8,400 - Light Exposure  
  • Daniel Berger $8,200 - Heavy Exposure 
  • Pat Perez $8,000 - Heavy Exposure
Value Tier ($7,900 And Below)
  • Cameron Smith $7,600 - Heavy Exposure 
  • Brendan Steele $7,400 - Heavy Exposure
  • Jason Dufner $7,200 - Light Exposure  
  • Austin Cook $7,100 - Heavy Exposure
  • Bryson DeChambeau $7,000 - Light Exposure 
  • Kyle Stanley - $6,800 - Heavy Exposure 

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