Saturday, January 13, 2018

MMA UFC DraftKings Plays - UFC Fight Night 124 Sunday January 14th 2018


We have an 11 match card (2 fights were cancelled) of UFC action on DraftKings tonight. Here are the fighters that I am targeting in my lineups.

Picture By CCySofia (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons


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We have an 11 fight card for UFC Fight Night this weekend! It was originally 13 fights, however 2 of the fights were cancelled. That's one of the reasons why I like to wait until the last minute to write my article. Fights get cancelled all the time and these two fights being cancelled definitely required me to rework my lineups.

I'm going to break down each fighter on the card separated by 3 tiers of pricing. The tiers are as follows:

Top Tier - $8,500 and Above
Mid Tier - $7,800 to $8,400
Value Tier - $7,700 and Below

I'm only playing GPP. However, if you play cash I will let you know if I like the fighter for cash as well. Let's begin with the top tier!

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Top Tier Fighters:
  • Kamaru Usman $9,400 - My favorite play on the card. I have his floor at around 80 points for a decision victory with 100+ upside. Highest odds to win. 3rd highest odds to win inside the distance. Strikes at a fast pace and has wrestling upside. In play in all formats, cash and GPP.
  • Kyung Ho Kang $9,200 - I have some exposure in GPP. I wouldn't recommend him in cash though. He hasn't fought in over 3 years and anytime a fighter has that long of a layoff that's a risk. With that said, he does have the 2nd highest odds to win on the entire card and 4th highest inside the distance odds. I like his chances of getting a submission win.
  • Irene Aldana $9,000 - Complete fade in all formats. I'm not paying $9,000 for a fighter who is 0-2 in the UFC
  • Matt Frevola $8,900 - I have a decent amount of exposure to him. He's risky for cash because he is making his UFC debut. However, he is undefeated in MMA competition outside of the UFC. He has the 3rd highest odds to win and the highest odds to win inside the distance. Play with confidence in GPP.
  • Mike Santiago $8,700 - I have a decent amount of exposure to him. He's not safe for cash lineups at all. However, he's a good GPP play. He's in the opening fight and those fighters historically on DraftKings go low owned. He has good odds to win, good odds to win inside the distance. He also strikes at a decent pace with wrestling upside.
  • Michael Johnson $8,600 - He's not a horrible play but I'm going elsewhere on this slate. I'm very concerned about paying $8,600 for a fighter who has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights. I won't be playing him. If you really like him, I don't have a problem with it.
  • DooHo Choi $8,500 - I love him in all formats. A lot of people are on Jeremy Stephens which means Choi will be lower owned than he should be. He's the favorite in the Main Event with the 2nd highest odds to win inside the distance. He strikes at a fast pace, has never been finished in his MMA career and has won 79% of his fights by knockout. Play him with confidence.
Mid Tier Fighters
  • James Krause $8,400 - I have some exposure to Krause this weekend. This is going to be a striker vs striker contest and he is the more accurate striker in this contest. He's a great cash play. However, his ceiling is limited in that he's not highly likely to get the finish, which limits his upside in GPP. He's still worth a few plays though.
  • JJ Aldrich $8,300 - I have no interest in Aldrich. She basically has pick em odds but is priced $200 more than she should be at those odds. Her fight is the least likely fight on the card to have a finish. She's also susceptible to takedowns.
  • Jessica-Rose Clark $8,200 - I have some exposure to Clark. She's fine for cash because her fight is very likely to go the distance. I believe the field is going to be a lot heavier on Paige Vanzant. While I will have some shares of her as well, Clark is certainly capable of winning this fight and she was very impressive in her UFC debut as an underdog. A repeat performance low owned could help one of my lineups take down a GPP.
  • Jessica Eye $8,100 - I have a decent amount of exposure to Eye. Not so much because I think she's an awesome play. It's more because I think her opponent is a bad play and at her price she allows me to fit some great fighters in my lineups. I wouldn't play her in cash though.
  • Kalindra Faria $8,100 - I have no interest in Faria. She has 25 fights and not a single win against UFC level talent. Her most impressive showing was a decision lost to Karolina Kowalkiewicz almost 3 years ago. I'll pass.
  • Paige VanZant $8,000 - I have a decent amount of exposure to VanZant. Her only losses in the UFC are against really good fighters. We also get her at a discount because there's no way she should be price less than Clark. Unless Clark is the real deal, VanZant should get the win in this one. She is safe for cash games as well.
  • Danielle Taylor $7,900 - I have a decent amount of exposure to Taylor. Some people might be concerned that she is at a reach disadvantage. However, she was at a reach disadvantage in her last fight and she still won. She's safe for cash. I do have concerns though about her upside as I don't see her getting the finish and she doesn't throw at a fast pace, nor does she have wrestling upside. I'm just playing her because I expect her to be low owned. He price allows me to fit fighters that I like. 
  • Alex White $7,800 - White isn't a horrible play, however, I'm not playing him on this slate. 
Value Tier
  • Jeremy Stephens $7,700 - He's a good cash play because he's in a 5 round Main Event. I will have some exposure to him in GPPs because he's certainly capable of winning. However, if you're only playing one lineup in GPP, fade Stephens. 
  • Darren Elkins $7,600 - Elkins is my surprise play. He's a underdog against Johnson but I think he has a chance here. He's won 5 straight fights in the UFC whereas his opponent has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights. I will have a lot of exposure to Elkins and I got him picked to win by decision. 
  • Mads Burell $7,500 - He's not a play that I love by any stretch of the imagination. However, if you're playing multiple lineups like I am, he's worth a play in 1 of your lineups. Opening card fighters go under owned and he could pull out an upset. Don't play him in cash though.
  • Polo Reyes $7,300 - I'm personally not playing him but I don't hate the play. His opponent is making his UFC debut and we've seen plenty of times where someone making their debut gets smoked by the higher level of competition at the UFC level. You got to find value somewhere on this card and if you opt to get it from Reyes, I don't have a problem with it. I wouldn't play him in cash though.
  • Talita Bernardo $7,200 - Her opponent is 0-2 in the UFC. She only has one fight here herself and it was a knockout loss in the 3rd round. However, at a price tag of only $7,200 I don't mind having a decent amount of ownership here. You have to take some risks to win GPP and Bernardo is one of the risks that I'm taking on this card. She's safe for cash as well because the fight is likely to go to a decision.
  • Guido Cannetti $7,000 - I have no interest in playing Cannetti. None.
  • Emil Meek $6,800 - If you're playing Meek, make sure you invite me to a head to head contest since you obviously like throwing your money away.
Finally, if you read this far, I have something special for you! I am hosting a MMA freeroll this weekend. This freeroll is open to anyone who has read this article and who is a member of The Masters of DFS Facebook Community. As long as you are a member of our Facebook community, you can CLICK THIS LINK TO JOIN THE FREEROLL!

Whoever comes in 1st place will win a $10 Amazon E-Gift card. In addition to the 1st place winner if there are at least 3 people who finish higher than I do in the freeroll, I will give the top 3 people who score higher than I do a $5 Amazon E-Gift card.

If I finish in 1st place, no one will get the $5 Amazon E-Gift card. However, the 2nd place finisher will receive a $10 Amazon E-Gift card.

There are only 9 open spots in this freeroll. First come first served. Once we are fill that's it, we are fill! 
CLICK THIS LINK TO JOIN THE FREEROLL!


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