Tuesday, January 16, 2018

EuroLeague DraftKings Plays - Wednesday January 17th 2018


We have a 4 game slate of EuroLeague action today! Here's a breakdown of today's slate on DraftKings!

Picture By Petar Milošević (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons


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Today we have a 4 game slate of EuroLeague action! This slate is loaded with top guards playing today. Therefore, if you're looking to take down a GPP, it comes down to figuring out which of the top guards are going to be the best this afternoon. Then it's a matter of building a good team around them.

Let's take a look at the slate:


Road TeamHome TeamLineOver/UnderAway TotalHome TotalGame Time (ET)
Anadolu EfesCSKA MoscowCSK -13169.578.2591.2512:00 PM
PanathinaikosFenerbahce UlkerFBD -5151.573.2578.2512:45 PM
Saski BaskoniaReal MadridRMB - 8.5169.580.5892:45 PM
UnicajaOlympia MilanoAXM -115778792:45 PM
Implied Totals
CSKA Moscow91.25
Real Madrid89
Saski Baskonia80.5
Olympia Milano79
Fenerbahce Ulker78.25
Anadolu Efes78.25
Unicaja78
Panathinaikos73.25

In looking at the implied totals, we see that CSKA Moscow and Real Madrid are the cream of the crop. Most of the other teams on the slate are in the middle of the pack. Panathinaikos is at the bottom of ineptitude in a category all by themselves. All things being equal, it's good to target the teams with the highest implied total as those are the teams expected to produce the most offense. Offense equals fantasy production.

Let's take a look at the top 6 options at guard today. I think you absolutely HAVE to have at least one of these guys, otherwise you're going to lose. I personally wouldn't even bother fielding a lineup today without two of these guys in it.


Guards Top TierImplied TotalSalaryMinutesL4 +-FP /GameL4 +-OPPOPRK
Nando de Colo91.25$11,80025.9-1.929-2.48EFS9
Sergio Rodriguez91.25$11,20026.7-1.527.52.45EFS9
Luka Doncic89$14,30026.1-2.3534.6-2.33BKN10
Errick McCollum78.25$10,70025.9-0.6522.53.03CSK2
Nemanja Nedovic78.25$10,90024.41.8525.21.2AXM16
Nick Calathes73.25$14,20027.5-1.2534.73.2FBD4

Tough choices!!!  De Colo, Rodriguez and Doncic are playing for the teams with the highest implied total. Their minutes are relatively stable. De Colo and Doncic over the last 4 games are averaging slightly below their fantasy point per game average for the season. Sergio Rodrigues is averaging slightly above. All 3 of them have a decent matchup in terms of opponent defense.

Errick McCollum and Nick Calathes are both averaging more than their season fantasy point average over the last four games. The problem is their implied totals are nowhere near as high as the other options and they have tough defensive matchups.

Nemanja Nedovic doesn't have as high of an implied total as the top 3 options. However, he's the only guard out of the top options that is averaging slightly higher in minutes played and fantasy points scored over the last 4 games compared to his season averages. He also has the best opposing defensive matchup of the night.

All of these options are decent options. It's just a matter of hoping you get them right. For me, I'm going to fade Doncic and his $14,300 price tag and hope it doesn't come back to bite me. I'm only playing 2 lineups today and I'm going to put my trust in Nemanja Nedovic. In one lineup I plan on matching him with Sergio Rodriguez. The other lineup, I'm going to match him with Nando de Colo. That's how I'm building on this slate.

To pay for two top guards, I'm going to need to look for value. While CSKA Moscow is one of the best teams in the league, they are not very good defensively against the forward position. Zoran Dragic is averaging 28.2 minutes per game and is slightly up at 0.55 additional minutes per game over the last 4 games. We haven't seen the fantasy production to go with those minutes averaging only 16 fantasy points per game. However, in the last game, he exploded for 34.75 fantasy points at a price of only $5,900. I will go back to the well. Derrick Brown at $5,600 is also capable of explosions like that as well, so I will be getting exposure to him as well. So is Brock Motum if he gets the minutes but he just hasn't been getting the minutes, so I will be avoiding him.

Fenerbahce Ulker is also another place where you can look for value at the forward position. They are in a tough opposing defensive matchup against Panathinaikos who is ranked 3rd at limiting the production of forwards. However, James Nunnally is still out with a broken hand. In addition, Jan Vesely is questionable with an achilles injury. He missed the game last week and there's no guarantee that he's going to play today. In their absence, Nicolo Melli stepped up in a big way to produce 34.5 fantasy points at only $7,100.  He's only $7,600 so I still like him this week. Jason Thompson has also been solid averaging over 3x value for three consecutive weeks. He gets a slight increase in salary but is still only $6,200 so another 3x value is certainly in play especially if Vesley misses again.

While Panathinaikos has the lowest implied total on the slate, I cannot ignore the fact that starter Matt Lojeski is out due to a foot injury. That puts Nikos Pappas in play at $6,300. I'm also willing to take a chance on Marcus Denmon at only $3,800.

Another option you can look at in the lower mid tier is Kaleb Tarczewski at $7,400. He has a consistent floor because he gets 6 to 7 rebounds per game and in his last game he scored 37 fantasy points. He also has a great matchup as Unicaja is 14th in the league at limiting fantasy production of forwards. Vincent Poirier is also worth a look at $7,400 as well. He's exceeded 24 fantasy points in 3 out of the last 4 games.

If you are looking for some value at the guard position, Tony Douglas made his EuroLeague debut last week and scored 21.25 fantasy points at only $4,000 salary. He's played for several NBA teams including The Knicks, The Rockets and The Pelicans and he's only $4,300 this week. He's a lock for me in all my lineups despite the tough matchup.

Good luck!

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