Tuesday, December 5, 2017

NBA DraftKings Plays - Tuesday December 5th 2017

We have a 3 game slate tonight of NBA action on DraftKings. Here are the players that I am building my lineups with.

Picture By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (DeMar DeRozan) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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It's Tuesday night NBA action on DraftKings and we have a short 3 game slate to build our teams around. 3 game slates can be tricky. You don't have as many options as you would have on a normal slate. Therefore, you may have to take some chances. There's two ways you do this. You can build a team of players that will have decent ownership but leave lots of salary unused. Or you can take a chance on some bench punts in hopes that they happen to pay off in tonight's contests.

When building my teams I start with the Vegas over/under point totals. I use this as a baseline to try and identify where the scoring is going to come from tonight. Here are the Vegas point spreads and over/under totals as of the time I'm writing this:
  • Phoenix @ Toronto (-14) 222.5
  • Utah @ Oklahoma City  (-7.5) 197
  • Washington @ Portland (-6) 201.5
Based on the vegas statistics, the Suns vs the Raptors looks like the game to target. However, there's only one catch. The Raptors are currently 14 point favorites in this game. This means that Vegas is expecting this game to be a blowout. Targeting this game could pay off due to the high point total. However, it can also be risky. If it ends up being a blowout and the coaches pull their top players early, you could be stuck with a number of players who don't hit value. Alternatively, you can also target the bench players on these same teams, hope their is a blowout and hope your bench targets do well.

The other two games, Vegas projects to be closer games. However, they also have much lower point over/under totals. So that's the first decision you have to make tonight. Do you target the high scoring blowout risk game? Or do you target the low scoring games projected to be closer?

The next step is to analyze the players themselves. You want to take a look at the player, look at their stats to determine how they perform. Then you want to look at their matchup. Armed with that information, you can decide whether you want to use that player tonight.

I've divided the players into 3 tiers based on their DraftKings salary. For each player, I will highlight what my plans are for them tonight and why.

Top Tier: $8,000 and Above
  • Russell Westbrook ($11,000) PG - I'm fading Westbrook tonight in all formats because of the tough matchup against the Jazz and the fact that DraftKings still has his salary towards the middle of what it's been this season. He scored 36.5 DK points last time they played and at tonight's price that's not even 3.5x value. You can play him in cash games because he will be highly owned due to limited options. I'm doing a complete fade though.
  • Damian Lillard ($9,400) PG - Lillard's in play for me in all formats. His game is projected to be the closest game tonight so he has less risk. He's one of the most consistent value hitters on the slate tonight. 
  • Kyle Lowry ($8,700) PG and DeMar DeRozan ($8,500) SG - If I can fit them in for cash lineups I'll play them but they are more GPP only plays for me tonight due to the matchup. Concerned about the blowout risk
  • Paul George ($8,400) SF - I don't mind George tonight. While Jazz are a tough matchup George did hit value last time out. I'm not going out of my way to play him but if he fits, I'll put him in.
  • Devin Booker ($8,000) SG/SF - The Raptors aren't a tough matchup at all defensively. However, I am concerned about the potential blowout risk so Booker is a fade for me tonight.
Mid Tier: $5,000 to $7,600
  • Bradley Beal ($7,600) SG - Beal was terrible last week without John Wall. Maybe he gets his act together tonight, but I won't be around to find out. Fade.
  • Rudy Gobert ($7,300) C - He played 20 minutes last night in his debut back from injury. I'm fading in cash, but I might take some shots in GPP.
  • Jusuf Nurkic ($7,200) C - He's not safe for cash because he has the propensity to get into foul trouble, which has caused him to hit value less than 50% of the time so far this season. However, I like him a lot in GPP tonight. He's got a great matchup
  • Donovan Mitchell ($7,100) PG - He's looked really good as of late but he has a tough matchup tonight against Andre Robertson and he is at his highest salary that he has been all season. He's a fade for me tonight.
  • CJ McCollum ($7,000) PG/SG - He will be in consideration for GPP lineups that I don't play Lillard in tonight. Matchup is ok not great but he has upside.
  • Otto Porter ($6,900) SF/PF - He's ok. If he fits I'll play him.
  • Derrick Favors ($6,600) PF/C - I like Favors A LOT tonight even with Gobert back. Carmelo Anthony is a liability on defense. Favors should eat.
  • Carmelo Anthony ($6,500) SF/PF - Melo is my favorite play on the Thunder Big 3. Although the matchup is tough, DraftKings is basically BEGGING us to play him at 6.5K which is the lowest price he's had this year. He is the most consistent player at hitting value this season out of every player on the slate tonight and he has struggled as of late which should help limit his ownership. 
  • TJ Warren ($6,400) SF/PF - I have no interest in Warren tonight. OG Anunoby has a high DRPM and the Suns are expected to get blown out which could significantly limit his minutes and upside. Add the fact that he should be highly owned because of the Vegas Total and he's a fade for me tonight.
  • Steven Adams ($5,900) C - I don't mind Adams tonight. If he fits, I'll play him.
  • Ricky Rubio ($5,400) PG - He has a tough matchup tonight against Russell Westbrook. He's a fade for me.
  • Marcin Gortat ($5,200) C - Tough matchup against Nurkic. I have no interest.
  • Serge Ibaka ($5,000) PF/C - Although there is blowout risk, I do want some exposure to that game and Ibaka is one of the ways I will get it. He's got a great matchup tonight and is one of the most consistent options at hitting value in the front court tonight.
Value Tier $4,900 and Below

For the value tier I'm just going to list the players that I like.
  • Jonas Valanciunas ($4,800) C - I'm fine with him in all formats. Great matchup.
  • Alec Burks ($4,500) PG/SG - No Rodney Hood in the lineup and he has rapidly exceeded value every game he's played with Hood out. Hitting the LOCK button on this one.
  • The Phoenix Centers: Greg Monroe ($4,500) PF/C Alex Len ($4,400) and Tyson Chandler ($4,300) - GPP only plays
  • Jakob Poelti ($3,400) PF/C - GPP only. Status is questionable with an illness. I will swap to Pascal Siakam if he doesn't play. 
  • Tyler Ulis ($4,100) PG - Blowout risk but I don't mind taking my chances with him in any format because his salary is low.
  • Norman Powell ($4,000) SG/SF - I like him tonight because he should be able to get run whether it's a blowout or a competitive game since he comes off the bench.
  • Tomas Satoransky ($4,100) PG/SG - Has performed decent coming off the bench. I don't mind him in any format.
  • Fred VanVleet ($3,400) PG - Pure GPP punt flyer in case he gets garbage time run.
  • Josh Jackson ($4,000) SG/SF - Pure GPP punt flyer in case he gets garbage time run.
  • Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,200) SF/PF - Just found out he's been cleared to play 30+ minutes. So he's in play for me tonight.

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