Saturday, December 30, 2017

MMA UFC DraftKings Plays - UFC 219 Saturday December 30th 2017

We have a 10 match card (1 fight was cancelled) of UFC action on DraftKings tonight. Here are the fighters that I am targeting for my lineups on tonight's card.

Picture By The original uploader was Grinkod at Russian Wikipedia (Transferred from ru.wikipedia to Commons.) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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We have a 10 fight card for UFC tonight. 10 fight cards can be difficult because you're going to have a lot of similar lineups. If you're a cash lineup player (I'm no longer playing cash games on DraftKings), cards like this are the type of cards where you will want to go more cash and less GPP than you normally would. If you are a GPP player like myself, you need to find a way to make your lineups more unique. This is done by playing fighters who are going to be lower owned and hoping for a surprise. This is also done by leaving salary on the table. 

Here is my breakdown of the fighters based on tier. The tiers are as follows:

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  • Top Tier - $8,900 and Above
  • Mid Tier - $7,500 to $8,800
  • Low Tier - $7,400 and Below
Let's start with the top tier fighters:
  • Khalil Roundtree Jr $9,400 - I am fading Khalil Roundtree Jr. I expect him to win by 1st round knockout. The problem is his price compared to what he does. He throws 1.4 significant strikes per minute which is one of the worst rates on the card. He gets 0 takedowns. So literally his only path to meeting value is first round knockout.
  • Cris Cyborg $9,300 - I like Cyborg in all formats tonight. She has the highest odds to win on the card at -343. She has -170 inside the distance odds, which is the highest on the card. Her floor is increased because it's a 5 round fight. I'm not going to lock her in because I expect her to be one of the highest owned fighters on the card. However, she is a fine play.
  • Cynthia Calvillo $9,200 - I'm fading Calvillo as well. Like Roundtree I am not a fan of the price. She's fine for cash games if you play cash because I think she has a pretty high floor. However, in GPP at that price, you really need someone who is going to score well over 100 points and I don't see Calvillo doing that.
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov $9,100 - I like Khabib in all formats. He is the third highest favorite to win at -280. He has the 2nd highest inside the distance odds at +120. He has one the highest floors and ceilings on the entire card. He can score with both striking and wrestling. I also think that Barbosa will have ownership because he is one of the best underdogs on the card. Khabib will be popular but I don't care. I will have a lot of him and I will be starting most if not all my lineups with him.
  • Tim Elliott $9,000 - I like Elliott as a GPP play. I feel like he should have little problem with having his way with Mark De La Rosa and while he has a super low floor as we learned in his last fight, he also has a super high ceiling. I also expect him to be lower owned than he should be because of how terrible he was the last time around. I will definitely have some exposure to him tonight.
  • Matheus Nicolau $8,900 - Nicolau is not a guy that I feel you have to have in your lineups tonight. However, he does interest me in GPPs. Finding underdogs is going to be tough on a card like this and I think Smolka will be pretty popular because he is a live dog at only $7,300. However, Nicolau has a lot more paths to victory than Smolka does. I don't have to have him, but if I have a spot and I need to pivot I'll play him.
Let's move on to the mid tier fighters:
  • Myles Jury $8,800 - I'm fading Jury. I think he can beat Glenn because he's a much better wrestler than Glenn. However, there's fighters that I like better both above him and below him so I really can't play him tonight. 
  • Marc Diakiese $8,700 - I'm fading Diakiese tonight. He's super powerful and can destroy you in the first round. However, if he doesn't finish in the first round, I don't really see him hitting value. Hooker throws at a much higher rate and I'm very concerned that if he doesn't get the finish, he could win by decision but not score high enough to make me have to have him.
  • Marvin Vettori $8,600 - Vettori isn't somebody that I have to have because I don't know if he's going to meet value. A decision victory where he scores 60 to 70 points and fails to meet value is certainly possible. However, I think he's a better fighter than Akhmedov. He also has the third highest inside the distance odds to finish the fight. 
  • Carlos Condit $8,500 - I'm not interested in Condit tonight. While I don't trust Magny either, I would much rather play him at $7,700 than play Condit at $8,500. He has one of the worst takedown defenses on the entire card just shy of 40%. He retired after being destroyed by Maia and that always concerns me. Condit is a no for me.
  • Neil Magny $7,700 - I don't really trust Magny either. However, at $7,700 and with all the concerns that I have at Magny, I don't mind playing him if I can fit him in my lineups. There's really no mid tier so it wouldn't surprise me if I have at least some Magny in my lineups just based on that.
  • Omari Akhmedov $7,600 - I have no interest in Akhmedov. I believe Vettori is the better fighter. I don't see him knocking out Vettori. He does get a lot of takedowns but Vettori does have a decent takedown defense percentage as well. I have no interest tonight.
  • Dan Hooker $7,500 - Hooker isn't somebody that I have to have. However, I can see him fitting into some of my lineups. He throws at a much higher pace than Diakiese landing over 4 significant strikes per minute. My concern though is he absorbs a LOT of strikes although thus far it hasn't resulted in him getting knocked out. If he fits, I'll play him.
Finally, let's look at the value tier:
  • Rick Glenn $7,400 - I'll have some exposure to Glenn because of the price. I think Jury can beat him. However, I think a decision victory for Glenn and hitting value because of it is certainly a possibility. He throws one of the highest significant strikes per minute on the entire card at 5.6 and he has the 2nd highest odds to win out of all of the underdogs on the card.
  • Luis Smolka $7,300 - He's a feast or famine fighter but he's someone I have to have at least a little bit of exposure to because of his submission upside. I think the most likely outcome is a decision loss. However, at $7,300 he won't necessarily kill our lineups if he loses and he could be in the winning GPP lineup if he pulls out one of those crazy submission victories that he is known for.
  • Mark De La Rosa $7,200 - I have no interest in De La Rosa. I think he is way out of his league against Elliott in his UFC debut. He's a late replacement as well and I'm not really a big fan in late replacement fighters who have never fought in the UFC before. So he's a pass for me. He is undefeated though, so if you want to take a shot or two with him, I don't hate the play. I'm just not going there tonight.
  • Edson Barboza $7,100 - I won't have a lot of Barboza because I'm going so heavy Khabib. However, I don't hate the play. You got to get your value from somewhere and he's arguably the best fighter in the value tier on the entire card. 
  • Carla Esparza $7,000 - Esparza isn't somebody that I have to have. However, if she fits, I don't mind playing her in some of my lineups. She has one of the best wrestling upsides on the entire card and for that reason alone she's worth a play at $7,000. Even in a loss she could potentially provide good value at her price because of that wrestling upside.
  • Holly Holm $6,900 - I like Cyborg, however, I do think there is a path to victory for Holm. If she can stay away from Holm and out strike her, I think that's her best path to victory. Do I think that will happen? No. Do I mind taking a shot with her at $6,900? No, I don't mind that at all.
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk $6,800 - I won't have a lot of Oleksiejczuk because I think it's a very strong possibility that he gets knocked out in the first round. However, if Roundtree doesn't win by first round knockout, I think that significantly increases the chances that Oleksiejczuk can meet value at that price. So for that reason, I will at least take a shot with him.
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