- Top Tier - $8,600 and Above
- Mid Tier - $7,700 to $8,500
- Value Tier - $7,600 and Below
Mid Tier Fighters - $7,700 to $8,500
Albert Morales $8,000 (Cash) - Morales has 9 fights on his resume going 7-2 with 1 No Contest. Both of his losses have come in the UFC but he was a big underdog in both of those contests. He is a powerful striker and has an aggressive style both standing up and on the ground. I like him in cash and you get a slight discount in odds value because he has even odds to win but you get a $100 discount. Between the slight discount and the odds to go the distance (-170 Over 2.5) he's fine as a cash play. I don't like him in GPP though because I am concerned that he may not have a lot of upside. He doesn't have good odds to finish (328 inside the distance) and if his DraftKings logs are any indication he doesn't have much decision win upside. So I will only be playing him in cash if I play him at all.
Darrell Horcher $7,900 (Fade) - Horcher is a decent fighter but I don't really like him in this matchup. He has the worst significant strikes defense percentage on this card (35.87%) and he's going up against an opponent who lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute. While he does defend takedowns well if a good wrestler gets him down he doesn't have much to offer in the way of a ground game. His upside is also very limited. I really don't see him getting more than at most 70 points in a decision victory as his upside and I personally have him losing this fight. So I have no interest.
Alexis Davis $7,800 (Cash & GPP) - If you tell me I can have a fighter who has already defeated his/her opponent before and I can have that fighter at a discount, you can sign me up for that. That's basically what you're getting with Davis. She's only $7,800 but she's already beaten Carmouche before. She's a great cash play because her fight has heavy odds to go the distance (-270 Over 2.5) and she lands a lot of significant strikes (4.5 SS per minute). She's also a great GPP play because more people like Carmouche both at Vegas (-175 favorite) and UFC fans (75% are picking Carmouche). So she should be much lower owned. A 70+ point decision win is certainly in play and at that price, I'll take it.
Frankie Saenz $7,700 (Fade) - Sanez has struggled in his most recent UFC fights. Out of his last 5 fights he's 2-3 with three consecutive losses including being knocked out. He's taking on a good prospect with a 6 consecutive win streak. Plus he's getting up their in age. That's not a strong recipe for success. There's other places that I would much rather like to spend my DraftKings salary.
Value Tier Fighters - $7,600 and Below
Aljamain Sterling $7,600 (Cash & GPP) - Sterling is in play for me in all formats and I will have good exposure to him. He has one of the best odds to price values on the entire card (currently only a 130 underdog). He's fighting an opponent who JUST fought a month ago. In 16 fights in his MMA career he has NEVER been finished and has only lost twice. He throws significant strikes at a good rate (lands 3.63 per minute) and has wrestling upside as well (averages over 2 takedowns per fight). He just screams PLAY ME so I'm going to do just that.
Chris Gruetzemacher $7,500 (Fade) - He's unplayable at this price. He's the 2nd biggest underdog on the entire card but he's priced at the 7th lowest price. All of his losses have come by way of submission and his opponent is an excellent submission grappler. Next!
Alejandro Perez $7,400 (GPP) - He's a somewhat big underdog (170) in a fight that only has small odds to go past 2.5 rounds (-120) against an opponent who has decent finishing odds (160 inside the distance). However, his opponent has been known to lose heavily favorite fights in the past. So while I certainly wouldn't play him in cash, I have no problems with taking some shots with him in GPP.
Carls John De Tomas $7,300 (Fade) - He got dominated in his debut fight against Nakoi Inoue. This fight will be no easier as he's getting one of the top prospects coming out of the West Coast USA. I'm not convinced he's UFC level so I will have no shares of him in my lineups.
Andre Soukhamthath $7,200 (Fade) - He throws a low rate of significant strikes. He has zero ground game. He's lost all of his fights in the UFC by decision. He's an easy pass for me this weekend.
Antonio Braga Neto $7,100 (GPP) - He his a solid Ji-Jutsu black belt specialist and while he is the clear underdog in this fight, he absolutely has a chance to win. His grappling skills would normally give him a high floor making him playable even in cash. However, he lacks a standup game and has been battered before in fights. Getting knocked out is a very real possibility making him a fade in cash. However, his grappling upside and the low ownership he will have as an opening card fighter makes him someone you definitely want at least some exposure to in GPPs.
Markus Perez $7,000 (GPP) - He's an undefeated skilled Brazilian fighter making his UFC debut. He won his most recent fight in impressive fashion scoring an arm triangle submission against a previously unbeaten fighter in the first round. He has a tough test against Anders and he's not somebody that you have to play. However, if you are looking for a punt to make room in your lineups, he is definitely worth consideration.
Gabriel Benitez $6,900 (GPP) - I really like his opponent and I also have plays that I like down in this price range so I will have no ownership of Benitez. However, I wouldn't be doing my job as a fantasy MMA writer if I told you to fade Benitez straight out. Knight is a very aggressive fighter and that absolutely opens the door for him to get hit. Benitez packs power especially with his feet and can strike all parts of the body. He's also a submission threat as well. So while I personally won't be playing him, if you want to play him as a GPP play, I don't have a problem with that.
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