Thursday, December 21, 2017

EuroLeague DraftKings Plays - Thursday December 21st 2017

We have a 4 game slate of EuroLeague basketball today on DraftKings. Here are the implied totals, injury news and recommended players that I am looking at on this slate.

Picture By Cristina Ruiz - unniks.com (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons


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We have a 4 game slate of EuroLeague action on DraftKings. If you read the article and used the plays yesterday there is a good chance that you made money yesterday. I know I did! At one point I was even 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Jukebox. Let's see if we can continue the momentum today! We will start with the implied offensive totals for each team:
  • Real Madrid (83 -3)
  • Fenerbahce Ulker (81.25 -5)
  • Brose Bamberg (80 +3)
  • Valencia (79.75 -3.5)
  • Crvena Zvezda (78.75 -1.5)
  • Panathinaikos (77.25 +1.5)
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv (76.25 +5)
  • Zalgiris Kaunas (76.25 +3.5)
Let's take a look at the injury report:

Crvena Zvezda vs Panathinaikos
  • Nick Calathes G PAO (out shoulder)
  • Nikos Pappas G PAO (questionable)
Brose Bamberg vs Real Madrid
  • Bryce Taylor G BRO (out calf)
  • Luka Mitrovic F BRO (out thigh)
  • Elias Harris F BRO (out)
  • Rudy Fernandez F RMB (out leg)
  • Sergio Llull G RMB (out ACL)
  • Ognjen Kuzmic F RMB (out ACL)
  • Gustavo Ayon F RMB (out shoulder)
  • Anthony Randolph F RMB (out foot)
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Fenerbahce Ulker
  • Itay Segev F MTA (out back)
Valencia vs Zalgiris
  • Antoine Diot G VBC (out knee)
  • Latavious Williams F VBC (out leg)
  • Joan Sastre F VBC (out hand)
Here are the players that I will be targeting based on the following price tiers:

Top Tier ($10,000 and Above)

Luka Doncic G RMB - With the 2nd best option on the slate Nick Calathes out this is a no brainer right here. Don't overthink this and try to be cute. Put Luke Doncic in the first spot in your lineup at the guard position and keep it moving. He obviously didn't hit value last week but that's only because he got ejected. Real Madrid has the highest implied offensive total on the entire slate. They are banged up with injury. His real floor is mid 20s and his ceiling is high 40s. I expect him to be in the 40s today so I'm locking him into all my lineups 100%

Dorell Wright F BRO - While I expect the field to flock to the likes of Kevin Pangos and Jan Vesely, I'm going to go with Wright. He was only 4% owned last week but hit close to 3x value in 3 out of the last 4 games. Brose Bamberg has the 3rd highest implied offensive total on the entire slate.

Mid Tier ($7,000 to $9,800)

Erick Green G VBC - Green is a perfect GPP play this week. He was only 6% owned last week and over the last 2 weeks he scored 15 and 11 fantasy points so I think a lot of people are going to be off him. His price is being reduced by $500 and Valencia are rare favorites this week. He has high 30s upside and we only need 29 fantasy points for him to hit 3x value. He's not a lock by any stretch of the imagination, but he's a good option to give your lineups some differentiation while taking on some risk.

Chris Singleton F PAO - With Nick Calathes out Singleton dropped 14 points and grabbed 10 rebounds giving us his best fantasy performance this season. Calathes is still out so I see no reason why he cannot give us a simliar performance this week. 30 fantasy points gives us 3x value, which is exactly what we need from a player in the top of the mid tier.

James Gist F PAO - With Nick Calathes out Gist dropped 15 points and grabbed 10 rebounds giving us his 2nd best fantasy performance of the season. Sounds famliar? The same reasons why I like Singleton is the same reasons why I like Gist. Even better, we get Fist for $400 less.

KC Rivers F PAO - Last week it was Singleton and Gist week even though most of the field was on Rivers. His 23.5 fantasy points didn't kill you though. This week it could be Rivers and Singleton. Or Rivers and Gist. I plan on mixing and matching my lineups with the 3 Panathinaikos forwards. I don't think any of them will kill us this week and the lineups where we get them right? Those are the lineups that could win us all the money this week.

James Nunnally F FBD - He's scored 23 to 35 fantasy points in 6 out of the last 7 EuroLeague games. At his price point that's almost a guaranteed 3x value. That's a nice floor to build the foundation of our lineups on today. Not to mention the fact that Fenerbahce Ulker has the 2nd highest implied offensive total on the slate and has the highest spread of victory on the slate.

Trey Thompkins F RMB - He was 55% owned last week and got a $900 price increase. However, I still like him as a play this week. Real Madrid has the highest implied offensive total on the slate. His floor should be in the 20s, which is 3x value and in his last 2 games he's been in the 30s which is around 4x value.

Bojan Dubljevic F VBC - It's not often that Valencia is the favorite so in the rare time that they are we have to take advantage. Dubljevic is a great option to take advantage with. He put up his best performance last week with 37 fantasy points. Even if he comes back down to his more typical performance of high teens to low 20s, that still puts us at 3x value which won't kill us at a 7k price point.

Value Tier ($6,900 and Below)

Nikos Pappas G PAO - Pappas is questionable but just as I finished writing this article I got an alert on twitter that he has traveled to meet the team. If you're playing only a couple of lineups, I wouldn't play him. However, if you're playing a lot of lineups like me I would get at least some exposure. He could be a low owned player that goes off if he is truly feeling better.

Edgaras Ulanovas F ZAL - Zalgiris has the lowest implied offensive total on the entire slate. However Ulanovas is still relatively cheap compared to the value he offers. He was 26% owned last week and his price only increased by $300. He has a floor in the low teens, which isn't great but his ceiling is in the 40s. Also unlike many of the other options available down here his minutes have consistently been in the mid 20s to low 30s. I don't mind taking some shots with him today.

Daniel Hackett G BRO - With Brose Bamberg still banged up this week, I like Hackett. He was 12% owned last week and they increased his price by $600. However, his floor is and the mid teens, which isn't great but won't kill you at his price point and he's had 25 and 26 fantasy point production in back to back games.

Fernando San Emeterio F VBC - Targeting Valencia when they are favorites is clearly a theme here this week and San Emeterio is another great target on their team this week. He's scored 24 or 25 fantasy points in 3 consecutive games and he is getting only a $300 increase to $6200. If he does it again, that still puts us at almost 4x value.

Lukas Lekavicius G PAO - 4.3k Star guard Nick Calathes is out and Lekavicius is the next man up. Last week he played 24 minutes and scored 20.75 fantasy points. A similar performance this week puts us at almost 5x value. He could do even more because the next option at guard Nikos Pappas is also out. That works for me at only $4,300 not to mention how much room he opens up for me in my lineups. I'm locking him in 100%.

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