Saturday, December 30, 2017

MMA UFC DraftKings Plays - UFC 219 Saturday December 30th 2017


We have a 10 match card (1 fight was cancelled) of UFC action on DraftKings tonight. Here are the fighters that I am targeting for my lineups on tonight's card.

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We have a 10 fight card for UFC tonight. 10 fight cards can be difficult because you're going to have a lot of similar lineups. If you're a cash lineup player (I'm no longer playing cash games on DraftKings), cards like this are the type of cards where you will want to go more cash and less GPP than you normally would. If you are a GPP player like myself, you need to find a way to make your lineups more unique. This is done by playing fighters who are going to be lower owned and hoping for a surprise. This is also done by leaving salary on the table. 

Here is my breakdown of the fighters based on tier. The tiers are as follows:

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  • Top Tier - $8,900 and Above
  • Mid Tier - $7,500 to $8,800
  • Low Tier - $7,400 and Below
Let's start with the top tier fighters:
  • Khalil Roundtree Jr $9,400 - I am fading Khalil Roundtree Jr. I expect him to win by 1st round knockout. The problem is his price compared to what he does. He throws 1.4 significant strikes per minute which is one of the worst rates on the card. He gets 0 takedowns. So literally his only path to meeting value is first round knockout.
  • Cris Cyborg $9,300 - I like Cyborg in all formats tonight. She has the highest odds to win on the card at -343. She has -170 inside the distance odds, which is the highest on the card. Her floor is increased because it's a 5 round fight. I'm not going to lock her in because I expect her to be one of the highest owned fighters on the card. However, she is a fine play.
  • Cynthia Calvillo $9,200 - I'm fading Calvillo as well. Like Roundtree I am not a fan of the price. She's fine for cash games if you play cash because I think she has a pretty high floor. However, in GPP at that price, you really need someone who is going to score well over 100 points and I don't see Calvillo doing that.
  • Khabib Nurmagomedov $9,100 - I like Khabib in all formats. He is the third highest favorite to win at -280. He has the 2nd highest inside the distance odds at +120. He has one the highest floors and ceilings on the entire card. He can score with both striking and wrestling. I also think that Barbosa will have ownership because he is one of the best underdogs on the card. Khabib will be popular but I don't care. I will have a lot of him and I will be starting most if not all my lineups with him.
  • Tim Elliott $9,000 - I like Elliott as a GPP play. I feel like he should have little problem with having his way with Mark De La Rosa and while he has a super low floor as we learned in his last fight, he also has a super high ceiling. I also expect him to be lower owned than he should be because of how terrible he was the last time around. I will definitely have some exposure to him tonight.
  • Matheus Nicolau $8,900 - Nicolau is not a guy that I feel you have to have in your lineups tonight. However, he does interest me in GPPs. Finding underdogs is going to be tough on a card like this and I think Smolka will be pretty popular because he is a live dog at only $7,300. However, Nicolau has a lot more paths to victory than Smolka does. I don't have to have him, but if I have a spot and I need to pivot I'll play him.
Let's move on to the mid tier fighters:
  • Myles Jury $8,800 - I'm fading Jury. I think he can beat Glenn because he's a much better wrestler than Glenn. However, there's fighters that I like better both above him and below him so I really can't play him tonight. 
  • Marc Diakiese $8,700 - I'm fading Diakiese tonight. He's super powerful and can destroy you in the first round. However, if he doesn't finish in the first round, I don't really see him hitting value. Hooker throws at a much higher rate and I'm very concerned that if he doesn't get the finish, he could win by decision but not score high enough to make me have to have him.
  • Marvin Vettori $8,600 - Vettori isn't somebody that I have to have because I don't know if he's going to meet value. A decision victory where he scores 60 to 70 points and fails to meet value is certainly possible. However, I think he's a better fighter than Akhmedov. He also has the third highest inside the distance odds to finish the fight. 
  • Carlos Condit $8,500 - I'm not interested in Condit tonight. While I don't trust Magny either, I would much rather play him at $7,700 than play Condit at $8,500. He has one of the worst takedown defenses on the entire card just shy of 40%. He retired after being destroyed by Maia and that always concerns me. Condit is a no for me.
  • Neil Magny $7,700 - I don't really trust Magny either. However, at $7,700 and with all the concerns that I have at Magny, I don't mind playing him if I can fit him in my lineups. There's really no mid tier so it wouldn't surprise me if I have at least some Magny in my lineups just based on that.
  • Omari Akhmedov $7,600 - I have no interest in Akhmedov. I believe Vettori is the better fighter. I don't see him knocking out Vettori. He does get a lot of takedowns but Vettori does have a decent takedown defense percentage as well. I have no interest tonight.
  • Dan Hooker $7,500 - Hooker isn't somebody that I have to have. However, I can see him fitting into some of my lineups. He throws at a much higher pace than Diakiese landing over 4 significant strikes per minute. My concern though is he absorbs a LOT of strikes although thus far it hasn't resulted in him getting knocked out. If he fits, I'll play him.
Finally, let's look at the value tier:
  • Rick Glenn $7,400 - I'll have some exposure to Glenn because of the price. I think Jury can beat him. However, I think a decision victory for Glenn and hitting value because of it is certainly a possibility. He throws one of the highest significant strikes per minute on the entire card at 5.6 and he has the 2nd highest odds to win out of all of the underdogs on the card.
  • Luis Smolka $7,300 - He's a feast or famine fighter but he's someone I have to have at least a little bit of exposure to because of his submission upside. I think the most likely outcome is a decision loss. However, at $7,300 he won't necessarily kill our lineups if he loses and he could be in the winning GPP lineup if he pulls out one of those crazy submission victories that he is known for.
  • Mark De La Rosa $7,200 - I have no interest in De La Rosa. I think he is way out of his league against Elliott in his UFC debut. He's a late replacement as well and I'm not really a big fan in late replacement fighters who have never fought in the UFC before. So he's a pass for me. He is undefeated though, so if you want to take a shot or two with him, I don't hate the play. I'm just not going there tonight.
  • Edson Barboza $7,100 - I won't have a lot of Barboza because I'm going so heavy Khabib. However, I don't hate the play. You got to get your value from somewhere and he's arguably the best fighter in the value tier on the entire card. 
  • Carla Esparza $7,000 - Esparza isn't somebody that I have to have. However, if she fits, I don't mind playing her in some of my lineups. She has one of the best wrestling upsides on the entire card and for that reason alone she's worth a play at $7,000. Even in a loss she could potentially provide good value at her price because of that wrestling upside.
  • Holly Holm $6,900 - I like Cyborg, however, I do think there is a path to victory for Holm. If she can stay away from Holm and out strike her, I think that's her best path to victory. Do I think that will happen? No. Do I mind taking a shot with her at $6,900? No, I don't mind that at all.
  • Michal Oleksiejczuk $6,800 - I won't have a lot of Oleksiejczuk because I think it's a very strong possibility that he gets knocked out in the first round. However, if Roundtree doesn't win by first round knockout, I think that significantly increases the chances that Oleksiejczuk can meet value at that price. So for that reason, I will at least take a shot with him.
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Friday, December 29, 2017

NBA Draft Plays - Friday December 29th 2017

We have a 9 game slate of NBA action to work with on Draft. Here are the strategies, contests and players that I'm targeting on today's slate.

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It's Friday and we have a 9 game slate of NBA action to build lineups with on Draft. Tonight, Draft is offering head to head contests, 3 person contests, 5 person contests, 8 person contests, dream team contests and tournaments. For tournaments there is a 3 person contest tournament ($5 3 entry max) a 5 person contest tournament ($23 3 entry max) and a head to head contest tournament ($110 single entry). I am playing the 3 person tournament if I can. The only issue is at the time of this article it's almost full. Usually they will run another one if it fills this early so hopefully that will be the case.

Draft is also running the $250,000 World Series of Fantasy. The entry fee is $12 and it is a 4 person draft qualifier with a 4 entry max. You have to win two times to cash and it is a 5 round tournament. However the winner of this qualifier gets an entry into the World Series of Fantasy NBA Main Event. This is a two round online competition for 25 players which takes place in March 2018. Winner of the Main Event gets $50,000. Here are the details:


Qualifiers are very tough to win so don't play them if your budget is tight. However, if you got the money, I would recommend getting at least one entry in. Just winning the ticket guarantees you a minimum prize of $1,500.

My contest strategy is to max out the 3 person tournaments if possible. I also want to get at least one entry into the World Series of Fantasy if possible. As for the regular contests, I'm going to avoid head to head contests as well as dream team contests and focus my efforts as follows. 50% of my non tournament budget will go towards 5 person and 8 person contests. The other 50% will go towards 3 person contests.

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Let's take a look at the injury report. I'm only going to include probable and questionable players. Players who are doubtful or out, I won't include and they also won't be in my player pool.
  • Blake Griffin (questionable knee)
  • Chris Paul (questionable leg)
  • Kyle Kuzma (probable quad)
I don't mind drafting any of these players however, if I do, they will be limited to 10% of my lineups.

My drafting strategy is as follows. DeMarcus Cousins is significantly better than the other options at Center. While he will be ranked where I have him in the 1st tier, I will definitely reach to get him in some of my drafts if I notice that I'm not getting him. While the slate is big enough that you can certainly cash without him, I definitely want some exposure to him in at least some of my drafts and will do what it takes to make that happen. The only way I won't get him is if he's going 1st or 2nd in all my drafts and I don't get enough 1st or 2nd picks to get him.

For 3 person contests, I want to get a minimum of at least 1 forward from the 1st tier. If I can get 2 that will be even better. So I will be targeting 1st tier forwards followed by 1st tier guards. If I don't get Cousins I'm saving Center for the 5th round.

For 5 person or 8 person contests I want to get a minimum of at least 1 forward from the 1st 3 tiers. If I can get 2 even better. If I don't get Cousins, I will draft a Center if there are no forwards available in the tier I'm targeting.

I am dividing the players that I'm targeting into 5 tiers. Each tier will have 8 players each:

Tier 1
  • Russell Westbrook G
  • James Harden G
  • Kevin Durant F
  • DeMarcus Cousins C
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo F
  • Anthony Davis F
  • DeMar DeRozan G
  • Draymond Green F
Tier 2
  • Dwight Howard C
  • Kyle Lowry G
  • John Wall G
  • DeAndre Jordan C
  • Kemba Walker G
  • Devin Booker G
  • Brandon Ingram F
  • Blake Griffin F
Tier 3
  • Dennis Schroder G
  • Kris Dunn G
  • Bradley Beal G
  • Eric Bledsoe G
  • Klay Thompson G
  • Chris Paul G
  • Kyle Kuzma F
  • Steven Adams C
Tier 4
  • Khris Middleton G
  • Harrison Barnes F
  • Carmelo Anthony F
  • Myles Turner C
  • Hassan Whiteside C
  • Otto Porter F
  • TJ Warren F
  • Zach Randolph F
Tier 5
  • Wille Cauley-Stein C
  • Jordan Clarkson G
  • Lance Stephenson G
  • Kent Bazemore F
  • Nikola Mirotic F
  • Tauren Prince F
  • Thaddeus Young F
  • Kelly Olynyk C
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Thursday, December 28, 2017

NBA Draft Plays - Thursday December 28th 2017

We have a 5 game slate of NBA action to work with on Draft tonight. Here are my recommended strategies, contests and players to target on this slate.

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It's Thursday night NBA action and we have a 5 game slate to build our lineups with. Draft is offering the following contest sizes. Head to Head, 3 person draft, 5 person draft, 6 person draft, dream team contests and tournaments. For the tournaments there are two 3 person contests tournaments ($5 3 entry max) and ($23 single entry). I'm going to max out the 3 person contest tournaments and then focus the rest of my efforts on the 3, 5 and 6 person drafts.


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Let's take a look at the injury report:
  • Joel Embiid (questionable back)
  • Chris Paul (out leg)
  • Nikola Vucevic (out hand)
  • Aaron Gordon (questionable calf - Game Time Decision)
  • Clint Capela (out, face fracture)
  • Jeff Teague (out knee)
  • Kawhi Leonard (probable rest)
  • Tim Hardaway Jr (out leg)
  • Reggie Jackson (out ankle)
  • Evan Fournier (questionable foot - Game Time Decision)
  • Jaylen Brown (out knee)
I'm obviously avoiding all of the outs. The questionables and probables, I will draft. However, I am limiting them to no more than 10% of my lineups.

Since 6 person contests are the largest contests tonight, I'm going to provide 5 tiers of players. Each tier will have 6 players each.

Tier 1
  • James Harden G
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo F
  • Andre Drummond C
  • Joel Embiid C
  • Karl-Anthony Towns C
  • Kristaps Porzingis F
Tier 2
  • LaMarcus Aldridge F
  • Jimmy Butler G
  • Damian Lillard G
  • Kyrie Irving G
  • Ben Simmons G
  • Kris Middleton G
Tier 3
  • Tobias Harris F
  • Jayson Tatum F
  • Trevor Ariza F
  • Al Horford C
  • Eric Bledsoe G
  • CJ McCollum G
Tier 4
  • Elfrid Payton G
  • Jonathan Simmons G
  • Eric Gordon G
  • Jusuf Nurkic C
  • Ish Smith G
  • Taj Gibson F
Tier 5
  • Andrew Wiggins F
  • Dario Saric F
  • Kawhi Leonard F
  • Aaron Gordon F
  • Robert Covington F
  • Pau Gasol C

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Wednesday, December 27, 2017

NBA Draft Plays - Wednesday December 27th 2017

We have a 10 game slate of NBA action tonight on Draft. Here are my strategies, contests and players that I am targeting tonight.

Picture By Erik Drost from United States (Russell Westbrook) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons


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So tonight we have 10 games of NBA action! If you have been using this article especially over the last few days you should be making some really good money. I've been crushing 3 mans and 6 mans as of late and I even have a 1st place 10 man. We get a full plate of contest types tonight including head to head, 3 person contests, 5 person contests, 8 person contests, dream team contests and tournaments. For the tournaments we have two 3 person contest tournaments ($5 and $23 3 entry max) as well as a head to head contest tournament ($110 single entry).

I would recommend maxing out the tournaments as long as it's in your budget to do so. THis is also a good night to play 8 mans, 5 mans and then round it out with 3 mans. Make sure you have as many 3 mans in entry fees as you have 6 mans and 8 mans. SO for instance, let's say you play $11 worth of 8 mans and 6 mans todays. You should also play $11 worth of 3 mans to balance it out.

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Let's take a look at the injury report:
  • Stephen Curry (out, ankle)
  • Victor Oladipo (questionable, knee)
  • Tyreke Evans (questionable, knee)
  • Lonzo Ball (out, shoulder)
  • D'Angelo Russell (out, knee)
  • Mike Conley (out, achilles)
  • Isaiah Thomas (out, knee)
  • Brandon Ingram (questionable, quad)
I'm fading everyone on this list today except for Tyreke Evans. I will draft him in 3 mans, but avoid him in 6 mans and 8 mans. However, even in 3 mans he will be limited to 10% of my lineups. The reason why is his game is really late so there's a possibility that we might not know his status until most of the slate has played. Oladipo is playing a back to back. Even if he plays, I want no parts of him on a back to back banged up. Ingram may not play and if he does play he will be on a minutes restriction so I want no parts of that either.

My draft strategy is as follows tonight. In 3 mans I want to try to get either Cousins or Towns at Center, address forward first and leave guard for last. The exception of course is if I can get Russell Westbrook. The problem though is in most drafts I'm not getting him because he's being taken first and with the first pick I'm taking James. In 5 mans and 8 mans, I want to get a center from the first 2 tiers. I am targeting forward first and then guard. However, if there are only guards in the tier and the next forward is in a lower tier, I'll take the guard.

Here is a breakdown of the players that I'm targeting. I'm going to provide 5 tiers of players with each tier having 8 players each.

Tier 1
  • LeBron James F
  • Russell Westbrook G
  • DeMarcus Cousins C
  • Kevin Durant F
  • Anthony Davis F
  • Karl-Anthony Towns C
  • Kristaps Porzingis F
  • Kevin Love F
Tier 2
  • Jimmy Butler G
  • Tyreke Evans G
  • Kyrie Irving G
  • John Wall G
  • Draymond Green F
  • DeMar DeRozan G
  • Marc Gasol C
  • Nikola Jokic C
Tier 3
  • Kyle Kuzma F
  • Paul George F
  • Dennis Schroder G
  • Jrue Holiday G
  • Kris Dunn G
  • Klay Thompson G
  • Zach Randolph F
  • Al Horford C
Tier 4
  • Bradley Beal G
  • Kyle Lowry G
  • Kemba Walker G
  • Dwight Howard C
  • Spencer Dinwiddie G
  • Rondae Hollis-Jefferson G
  • Enes Kanter C
  • Myles Turner C
Tier 5
  • Myles Turner C
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope G
  • Kent Bazemore F
  • Nikola Mirotic F
  • Taj Gibson F
  • Jayson Tatum F
  • Carmelo Anthony F
  • John Collins F

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Sunday, December 24, 2017

NBA Draft Plays - Monday December 25th 2017

Merry Christmas Daily Fantasy Basketball Fans! We have a 5 game slate of NBA action on Draft. Here are the contests, strategies and players that I will be targeting on this Christmas slate!


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Merry Christmas!!! Christmas is one of my favorite slates to play fantasy basketball! We have a 5 game slate of NBA action. The NBA usually reserves this day for some of their best matchups. Draft has head to head contests, 3 player contests, 6 player contests, dream team contests and tournaments. For the tournaments they are offering a 3 player tournament ($3 3 entry max) a 4 person tournament ($23 4 entry max) and a head to head tournament ($110 single entry contest). I would avoid the 4 person tournament and max out the other tournaments as long as it is within your budget.

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Let's take a look at the injury report:
  • Joel Embiid (questionable, back)
  • Chris Paul (doubtful, leg)
  • Stephen Curry (out, ankle)
  • Clint Capela (questionable, heel)
  • Brandon Ingram (questionable, quad)
I will be fading Paul and Curry of course. Embiid, Capela and Ingram I am restricting to 10% of my lineups in 6 person contests. In head to head and 3 person contests, you pretty much have to draft them if you cannot get Karl Anthony Towns. If they are injured, you can always swap them out for one of the lower tier centers.

Drafting strategy is as follows. In head to head and 3 person contests, guard is the weakest position so that's the position I am trying to fill first, followed by forward, followed by center. In 6 person contests forward is the weakest position so that's the position I am targeting, followed by center followed by guard.

Here is the breakdown of the players that I am targeting. I did 5 tiers of players, each tier having 6 players each.

Tier 1
  • LeBron James F
  • James Harden G
  • Russell Westbrook G
  • Kevin Durant F
  • Karl-Anthony Towns C
  • Jimmy Butler G
Tier 2
  • Kyrie Irving G
  • Kristaps Porzingis F
  • Kevin Love F
  • Joel Embiid C
  • Ben Simmons G
  • John Wall G
Tier 3
  • Draymond Green F
  • Paul George F
  • Kyle Kuzma F
  • Clint Capela C
  • Al Horford C
  • Klay Thompson G
Tier 4
  • Bradley Beal G
  • Eric Gordon G
  • Enes Kanter C
  • Jordan Clarkson G
  • Brandon Ingram F
  • Trevor Ariza F
Tier 5
  • Robert Covington F
  • Jayson Tatum F
  • Jaylen Brown F
  • Otto Porter F
  • Jeff Teague G
  • Steven Adams C
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Saturday, December 23, 2017

NBA Draft Plays - Saturday December 23rd 2017

We have a 12 game slate of NBA action on Draft. Here are the strategies, contests and players that I will be targeting on Draft.


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We have some Saturday night NBA action on Draft! Today we get a 12 game slate of teams to pick from. Just to note this article does not include players from the 5pm game since that game has obviously passed. Tonight we get a full gambit of contest types including head to head, 3 player contests, 6 player contests, 10 player contests and dream team contests. The only thing we don't have any of is tournaments. Those were included on the 5pm slate. Tonight, I'm going to fade the head to head contests and the dream team contests. Most of the higher upside dream team contests were included on the 5pm slate. I'm going to focus my attention on 3 player, 6 player and 10 player and try to capture my upside that way. It worked pretty well for me last night as I was able to cash 100% in my 6 players.

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Let's take a look at the injury report
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (out knee)
  • Stephen Curry (out ankle)
  • Damian Lillard (out hamstring)
  • Blake Griffin (out knee)
  • Marc Gasol (doubtful hip)
  • Dwight Howard (probable finger)
  • Kemba Walker (probable head)
  • Dennis Schroder (questionable ankle)
  • Donovan Mitchell (probable toe)
  • Jaylen Brown (probable achilles)
The doubtful and out players I'm obviously fading. The probable and questionable players I will draft. However, I will make sure I limit them to 10% of my lineups.

Drafting strategy tonight, I'm picking Center last in most of my 3 player contests. Only way I won't take center last is if I keep getting the same center. For the 6 person and 10 person I will try to get a center from the first 3 tiers if possible. All things being equal I will try to take Forward first as that's the weakest position tonight. The exception is Russell Westbrook. Only players I will ever take in front of Westbrook tonight is Durant.

Here's a breakdown of the player pool I am targeting tonight. I did 5 tiers of players, each tier having 10 players each.

Tier 1
  • Kevin Durant F
  • Russell Westbrook G
  • DeMarcus Cousins C
  • Anthony Davis F
  • Karl-Anthony Towns C
  • Victor Oladipo G
  • Nikola Vucevic C
  • Kyrie Irving G
  • Tyreke Evans G
  • Draymond Green F
Tier 2
  • Jimmy Butler G
  • Nikola Jokic C
  • John Wall G
  • Bradley Beal G
  • Klay Thompson G
  • Khris Middleton G
  • Eric Bledsoe G
  • Kyle Kuzma F
  • Dennis Schroder G
  • Kris Dunn G
Tier 3
  • LaMarcus Aldridge F
  • Paul George F
  • Kemba Walker G
  • DeAndre Jordan C
  • Jrue Holiday G
  • Al Horford C
  • Dwight Howard C
  • Lonzo Ball G
  • CJ McCollum G
  • Kelly Olynyk C
Tier 4
  • TJ Warren F
  • Donovan Mitchell G
  • Spencer Dinwiddle G
  • Brandon Ingram F
  • Lou Williams G
  • Will Barton F
  • Jusuf Nurkic C
  • Otto Porter F
  • Nikola Mirotic F
  • Zach Randolph F
Tier 5
  • Harrison Barnes F
  • Taj Gibson F
  • Thaddeus Young F
  • Carmelo Anthony F
  • John Collins F
  • Jaylen Brown F
  • Jayson Tatum F
  • Brandon Wright F
  • Tyler Johnson G
  • Steven Adams C

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