Wednesday, November 22, 2017

NFL DraftKings Plays - Thursday November 23rd 2017

We have a 3 game Thanksgiving Slate of NFL action on Draft! DraftKings has some great contests that they are rolling out for the Thanksgiving slate. Here are my recommended players to target in cash games and GPPs on DraftKings.

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It's Thanksgiving and DraftKings is ready with a 3 game NFL slate for us to play. Small slates in NFL on DraftKings can be pretty tricky. Since there is a limited amount of players to pick from game theory is a very important element that you must factor into your lineup decision making process.

Here is a breakdown of the players that I like in the three price tiers:

Top Tier: $6,700 and Up
Mid Tier: $5,000 to $6,400
Value Tier: $4,900 and Below

Top Tier: 6,700 and Up

Cash Play: Kirk Cousins $7,100 QB - Cousins is the guy I'm going to start my cash lineups with at the top tier. I like Cousins for several reasons. For starters, the Redskins are at home and are 7 point favorites in a division game against the Giants. The Giants are BY FAR the worst defensive team on the slate against both the pass and the run.  They give up the 3rd most fantasy points to the Quarterback position in the entire NFL. Kirk Cousins is by FAR the most consistent fantasy player in the top tier.  He's hit 2x value 60% of the time, 3x value 50% of the time and 4x value 40% of the time. No other player on the slate comes close.

GPP Play: Adam Thielen $7,600 WR - Most of the top tier is going to be highly owned in all formats. I like Thielen in all formats. If I can fit him in my cash lineup he will be there, but he is most certainly going to be a major part of my core in GPP. I think that Gordon and Allen is going to get the most ownership in the top tier and while I'm fine with both of them, I want the lowest owned option for GPP. The Dallas Cowboys are the 2nd worst team defensively after the Giants. They give up the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position out of all the teams on this slate. Thielen hits 2x value 50% of the time and 3x value 30% of the time.

Other Plays I Like 
  • Melvin Gordon $8,100 RB (Cash & GPP)
  • Keenan Allen $7,300 WR (Cash & GPP)
Mid Tier: $5,000 to $6,400

Cash Play: Samaje Perine $5,000 RB - Perine is easily the top option tonight in cash. Both Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley are out so he's going to get practically ALL the work at the Running Back position in the Redskin offense. He had 22.6 points against New Orleans last week and I see no reason why he cannot repeat or even exceed that performance. There's certainly merit to a GPP fade because I suspect he will be the highest owned player on the entire slate. However, in cash? He is a 100% lock for me. He's just WAY too cheap for what he should produce.

GPP Play: Vernon Davis $5,500 TE - Jordan Reed is a game time decision. It is expected that he will NOT play. Should that happen, I'm loading up on Vernon Davis in GPP.  The Giants give up the most fantasy points to the tight end position in the entire NFL. In the 3 games that Davis played with Reed out he's exceeded 3x value 2 out of 3 times.

Other Plays I Like
  • Philip Rivers $6,100 QB (GPP)
  • Jerick McKinnon $5,200 RB (Cash & GPP)
  • Jamison Crowder $5,400 WR (Cash & GPP)
  • Matthew Stafford $6,000 QB (GPP)
  • Evan Engram $6,100 TE (Cash & GPP)
  • Dez Bryant $6,400 WR (Cash & GPP)
  • Gordan Tate $6,200 WR (Cash & GPP)
  • Stefon Diggs $6,300 WR (GPP)
Value Tier: $4,900 and Below

Cash Play: Orleans Darkwa $4,600 RB - Darkwa is questionable so make sure he's playing first. However, if he is and you need a low priced player in cash or GPP for the matter, I like Darkwa. He's hit 2x value over 55% of the time and 3x value 33% of the time. The Redskins are in the bottom 25% of the league in limiting fantasy points to the running back position. I expect him and Engram to be a huge part of the offense if Shephard can't go.

GPP Play: Alfred Morris $4,800 RB - With Ezekiel Elliot suspended, Alfred Morris is the featured back in the Cowboys offense. He didn't light the world on fire last week. However, the Cowboys are expected to get Left Tackle Tyron Smith back on the offensive line. This is important to Morris' value because Smith is very good at run blocking. I don't like Morris in cash because he's not a pass catching running back so he's going to need a run heavy game plan to exceed value. However, I expect him to be low owned and with the offensive line improvement, I don't mind taking some shots with him in GPP.

Other Plays I Like
  • Terrance Williams $3,700 WR (Cash & GPP)
  • Latavius Murray $4,900 RB (GPP)
  • Josh Doctson $4,700 WR (GPP)
  • Ameer Abdullah $3,900 RB (GPP)
  • Travis Rudolph $3,000 WR (GPP)
  • Kyle Rudolph $4,100 TE (Cash & GPP)
  • Washington Redskins Defense $3,600 DEF (Cash & GPP)
  • Los Angeles Chargers Defense $2,800 DEF (Cash & GPP)
  • Tyrell Williams $3,400 WR (GPP)
  • Minnesota Vikings Defense $3,300 DEF (Cash & GPP)
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