Monday, November 27, 2017

NBA DraftKings Plays - Monday November 27th 2017

We have an 8 game NBA Slate tonight on DraftKings. Here are my recommended plays for tonight's slate!

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Tonight we have an 8 game slate of live NBA action on DraftKings. With there being a number of injuries tonight this has opened the door for lots of value on tonight's slate. I'm going to highlight on this article the plays that I like. 

Last night was an ok night for me in NBA. I struck out in GPPs completely. However I cashed in 71% of my 3 man contests, allowing me to make a small profit.

As usual, I will break them down into three different price tiers. They are:
  • Top Tier = $8,200 and Up
  • Mid Tier = $5,600 to $8,000
  • Value Tier = $5,500 and Below
On a big slate like this there are lots of good plays. However, you cannot play everybody if you want to win. These are the players that I am playing tonight. If I don't have them listed here it doesn't mean that they are not a good play. It simply means that I am not playing them tonight.

Let's start with the Top Tier:

Favorite Cash Play: Joel Embiid $10,400 C - Embiid is SUPER expensive tonight! This is easily his highest price that he has had this season. For this reason, he is a complete and utter fade in GPP contests for me tonight. However in cash I am locking him in! Here's why. For starters, he has the highest fantasy points per minute average on DraftKings over ANY player on this entire slate at just under 1.50 fantasy points scored per minute. The 76'ers have the 2nd highest Vegas Implied total out of all teams on this slate. When on the card he has a usage rate of over 35% and Ben Simmons is questionable tonight. Should he not play, he gets an additional 3% usage increase when Simmons is off the court. He hit 4x value over 72% of the time over the last 4 weeks. Plus with all of the value that's available tonight, we can afford the high price tag.

Favorite GPP Play: James Harden $11,800 PG/SG - It was pretty much between Harden and LeBron James as my favorite GPP play in the top tier. I gave the slight edge to Harden. He's higher price and Chris Paul is back and playing well, plus they have the far weaker opponent so there's blowout risk. As a result, I expect him to have less ownership than James. His team has the highest Vegas Implied Total on the entire slate. J.J Reddick is not a good defender. He was just as risky against the Knicks the other night yet he still hit 5.6 times value and in the top tier you really only need 5x value from your superstar to have him in the winning GPP lineup. I wouldn't play him in cash because James and Embiid are safer. However, give me Harden low owned in a great matchup in GPP any night of the week!

Other Plays I Like:
  • LeBron James (All Formats)
  • Ben Simmons (GPP Only)
  • Blake Griffin (GPP Only)
  • Damian Lillard (GPP Only)
Next, let's move to the mid tier:

Favorite Cash Play: Klay Thompson $7,000 SG - With Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant both out, Klay Thompson becomes the focal point in the Warrior offense. In 132 minutes playing without them on the floor he averages a fantasy point per minute and leads the team in usage rate with 31.2%. If you're not playing Klay Thompson in cash tonight, you're research process is broken.

Favorite GPP Play: Lou Williams $6,500 PG/SG - As long as Patrick Beverley and Milos Teodosic remain out you have to like the upside of Lou Williams. He is 2nd to Blake Griffin in usage rate with them off the court with 29.1%. He averages 1.06 fantasy points per minute with them off the court as well. Over the last 4 weeks he's hit 4x value almost 70% of the time, 5x value almost 40% of the time and 6x value almost 25% of the time. You can even play him in cash as well.

Other Plays I like:
  • Draymond Green (All Formats)
  • Clint Capela (All Formats)
  • Chris Paul (All Formats)
Finally, let's move to the value tier:

Favorite Cash Play: Trevor Booker $4,600 PF/C - Booker has been very consistent over the last 4 weeks hitting 4x value over 70% of the time and 5x value almost 60% of the time. Allen Crabbe and Ronde Hollis-Jefferson are out tonight and DeMarre Carrolle is questionable. Booker has played the most amount of minutes this season without these two on the floor. He has a good usage rate of 25.5% and averages 1.21 fantasy points per minute when they are not on the floor. His usage increases even more if Carrolle sits tonight. Fire him up in all formats.

Favorite GPP Play: Harrison Barnes $5,500 SF/PF - Barnes will be my most owned player tonight on this slate in GPP. The Spurs are in the bottom 40% of the league in allow fantasy points scored to the small forward position. The last time he was priced this low he hit over 7x value. Over his last 3 games he has hit 5.8x 6.2x and 7.4x value. Barnes will be in almost every GPP lineup I play tonight.

Other Plays I like:
  • Shaun Livingston (All Formats)
  • Omri Casspi (All Formats)
  • Joe Harris (GPP Only)
  • Nick Young (GPP Only)
  • Jordan Bell (GPP Only)
  • Tyler Zeller (GPP Only)
  • David West (GPP Only)
  • Patrick McCaw (GPP Only)
  • Sean Kilpatrick (GPP Only)

Like my article! Feel free to leave me a tip! I appreciate your support!

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