Monday, November 20, 2017

NBA DraftKings Plays - Monday November 20th, 2017

Here are my recommended cash and GPP plays on DraftKings for tonight's 11 game slate

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It’s Monday night and we have a 11 game slate tonight of NBA action. Friday night was not profitable for me on DraftKings. I did win 42% of my 3 mans, which made me profitable on that contest type. However, I struck out on all my leagues as well as all of my GPP contests.
Since 50% of my entry fees on DraftKings goes to 3 man contests, this allows me to minimize my losses on nights like this where my higher upside contests don’t pay off.

Tonight we have an 11 game slate. That means there are lots of options in play tonight for both cash games as well as GPP contests. For cash lineups, I look for players who have high floors with a high rate of hitting value playing on teams with high implied totals in positive defensive matchups. For GPP contests, I am willing to compromise more on one or more of these elements.

Here is a breakdown of the players that I like in the three different price tiers.

Top Tier: $8,300 and Higher
Mid tier: $5,700 to $8,200
Value Tier: $5,600 and Lower

Top Tier: $8,300 and Higher

Top Cash Play: Damian Lillard $8,300 PG - Damian Lillard is an outstanding cash play tonight on DraftKings. He's hit at least 4x value on DraftKings more than 87% of the time this season. His current price point is one of the lowest price points that he's been priced at all season. Memphis is in the bottom 40% of the league in limiting fantasy points to point guards this season. The only negative that Lillard has in this matchup is Portland has a low Vegas Implied total of 196 at the time I'm writing this. However, the salary discount more than makes up for this in my view. Fire Lillard up in all formats.

Top GPP Play: Nikola Jokic $9,100 C - Jokic is a risky play as you experienced first hand if you played him last night only to get a 2nd quarter ejection. He hit 4x value only 56% of the time this season. However, he has MASSIVE upside tonight. Paul Millsap is out tonight with a wrist injury and Wilson Chandler is questionable tonight with a back injury. Jokic is clearly the biggest beneficiary with Millsap out as he experiences significant increases in usage and fantasy points scored per minute with Millsap out. He's also playing against Sacramento who is the worst in the league at giving up fantasy points to the center position. He should be lower owned tonight after what happened last night. I'm going to load up on him in GPP contests.

Other Players I Like Tonight
  • Kristaps Prozingis (Cash & GPP)
  • Ben Simmons (Cash & GPP)
  • Andre Drummond (Cash & GPP)
Mid tier: $5,700 to $8,200

Top Cash Play: Reggie Jackson $6,200 PG - Jackson is my favorite cash play in this tier tonight. He hits 4x value at least 81% of the time so far this season. His Usage percentage of 26% is the highest on the Pistons. They have a juicy matchup against the Cavs who are in the bottom 20% in the league in fantasy points allowed to the point guard position on DraftKings. He is a great player to build your lineups around tonight.

Top GPP Play: Dwight Howard $7,000 C - I like Dwight Howard in GPP tonight for several reasons. For starters, he hits 5x value 60% of the time this season and 6x value 20% of the time this season. That's pretty good for a player who is priced on the higher side of the salary band. Charlotte has one of the highest implied Vegas totals tonight. Howard also has a great matchup tonight against the Timberwolves. The Wolves are in the bottom 40% of the league in allowing fantasy points to the Center position. Towns, their center is in the negative in DRPM.

Other Players I Like Tonight
  • Harrison Barnes (Cash & GPP)
  • Tobias Harris (Cash & GPP)
  • Evan Fournier (Cash & GPP)
  • Robert Covington (GPP) - Cash as well if Embiid doesn't play
  • LaMarcus Aldridge (GPP)
  • Darren Collison (GPP)
  • Victor Oladipo (GPP)
Value Tier: $5,600 and Below

Top Cash Play: Mario Chalmers $4,700 PG - While the matchup isn't ideal due to the low pace and tough matchup (Portland is in the top 20% of the league in limiting fantasy production for point guards) Chalmers is still too cheap. Mike Conley is out at least 2 weeks. In a tough matchup against the Rockets, Chalmers hit 7x value on DraftKings. Until they raise his price up some more, I'm going to play him in cash every single time.

Top GPP Play: Bojan Bogdanovic $4,300 SG/SF - While he doesn't have the best of matchups taking on the Magic who are solid defensively against small forwards, I like Bogdanovic for several reasons. While the Magic are tough against small forwards, they aren't that great against shooting guards and Bogdanovic does get some minutes at that position. He's also exceeded 6x value more than 41% of the time this season.

Other Players I Like Tonight
  • Mason Plumlee (Cash & GPP)
  • Austin Rivers (Cash & GPP)
  • J.J Redick (Cash & GPP)
  • Danny Green (Cash & GPP)
  • Dario Saric (Cash & GPP)
  • Jamal Murray (GPP)
  • Patty Mills (GPP)
  • Rajon Rondo (GPP)
  • George Hill (GPP)
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