Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Euro League Basketball - Thursday November 30th 2017

We have a 5 game slate of Euro League Basketball. Here's who I like in today's slate

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So I was just clicking around on DraftKings after making my PGA lineups and I came across a link for Euro League Basketball. I'm about to catch up on some TV before I go to bed so I figure, why don't I just submit a GPP lineup and see how I do just for the fun of it? Hey, you never know! So this will be my first article for Euro League Basketball. No promises that I'm going to do these all the time. We will see how it goes.

Since Europe is several hours ahead of the United States, the games start in the afternoon over here, which is the evening over there. The cool thing about that is you can submit your lineups either late at night or early in the morning. Then once those games start, you can begin your NBA research.

For today's slate, there are 5 games. Whenever I analyze NBA basketball I start out with the Vegas totals. So it makes sense to start out there as well with Euro League Basketball. Here are the odds and over/unders for each game:

  • Brose Bamberg +6 vs Khimki M -6 OU 156.5 (BRO vs KHI)
  • Olimpia Milano +5 vs Anadolu Efes -5 OU 162 (AXM vs EFS)
  • Zalgiris Kaunas +4 vs Mccabi Tel Aviv -4 OU 158 (ZAL vs MTA)
  • Fenerbahce Ulker -1.5 vs Saski Baskonia +1.5 OU 155 (FBD vs BKN)
  • Olympiakos +1 vs Valencia -1 OU 147 1/2 (OLY vs VBC)
Using this data, I have calculated the following Vegas Implied Totals for each team:
  • Anadolu Efes 83.5
  • Khimki M 81.25
  • Mccabi  Tel Aviv 81
  • Olimpia Milano 78.5
  • Fenerbahce Ulker 78.25
  • Zalgiris Kaunas 77
  • Saski Baskonia 76.75
  • Brose Bamberg 75.25
  • Valencia 74.25
  • Olympiakos 73.25
As we can see Anadolu Efes has the highest Vegas Implied total and Olympiakos has the lowest. All things being equal, I'm looking to target the best players from the teams with the highest Vegas Implied totals.

On DraftKings your lineup consists of 2 guards, 3 forwards and a Utility spot, which you can insert a player of any position.

I've divided the players into three different price points. Top Tier, Mid Tier and Value Tier. I'm only playing GPP so I won't be separating players into cash plays or GPP plays. Here's who I like on today's slate:
Top Tier - $9,000 and Up
  • Alexey Shved G - $12,800 32.6 FPPG. Team banged up will need to carry even bigger load.
  • Brad Wanamaker G - $10,700 27.2 FPPG. His other starting guard is out. Had his best game with him out.
  • Jordan Theodore G - $10,100 23.5 FPPG. His other starting guard is out but salary has been adjusted to account for increased role.
  • Vladimir Stimac F - $10,000 25.9 FPPG. Team's 2nd leading scorer and leading rebounder.
  • Pierre Jackson G - $9,800 25.6 FPPG. Very consistent. Huge ceiling.
  • Bryant Dunston F - $9,400 26.1 FPPG. Good scorer. Very consistent minutes.
Mid Tier $7,100 to $8,900
  • Arturas Gudaitis F - $8,400 21.3 FPPG. Inconsistent at times but rebounds well.
  • James Anderson G - $8,300 23.3 FPPG. Consistent minutes, good ceiling but inconsistent.
  • Krunoslav Simon F - $8,200 21.24 FPPG. Ceiling is dependent on his shot falling.
  • Eric McCollum G - $8,000 21.3 FPPG. High ceiling. Low floor
Value Tier $6,900 and Below
  • Malcolm Thomas F - $7,100 17.5 FPPG. Front court banged up. Could get more minutes.
  • Curtis Jerrells G - $6,500 27.8 FPPG - Only played 3 games but exceeded value in 2 of them.
  • Jonan Bolden F - $5,500 16.3 FPPG - Has hit 3.5x value 4 straight games.
  • Josh Adams G - $5,400 13.5 FPPG -  GPP Flyer only. Can exceed value if he gets hot and gets minutes.
  • Mantas Kalnietis - $4,900 14.3FPPG - Backcourt injury may create additional opportunity.

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