Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Floor vs Ceiling Players: How to Tell the Difference

Stephen Curry vs Doug McDermott

Week 2 has come and gone in 2017. Let's see how I did in the 2nd week of the new year!

Tuesday January 10th to Monday January 16th.

Sports Played: NBA, NFL and MMA

With the conclusion of the football season this week was almost exclusively a NBA week. This week was one of my worst weeks this season in NBA. I lost Tuesday. I lost Wednesday. I lost Thursday. I lost Friday! Combine that with the 4 day losing streak from the previous week and that put me at an 8 day losing streak!

This is why it is SO IMPORTANT that you practice good bankroll management skills. The reason why I can handle a losing streak for that many nights consecutively is because I protect my bankroll by only playing a portion of it every night. So when I lose money I am playing LESS money and when I win money I am playing MORE money.

Saturday I took off and didn't play at all. I took my daughter to American Girl for her birthday and brought her a brand new American Girl doll! She was ecstatic! For at least one day this week, I was a winner!

Sunday night was UFC Fight Night Phoenix. I only played Tournaments that night because I was really busy this weekend. However, I had a great night and was able to cut into some of these losses a little bit. Sunday was also round 2 of my football contest. I finished 30,365 out of 142,171. I have one final chance next week to Crack the top.

Monday was back to NBA and back to more losing! Definitely one of the WORST NBA weeks that I can recall ever having. It happens! Fortunately there are still 50 more weeks left to go in the year!

NBA Week Results = -70.36% ROI (ouch!)
NFL Week Results = 0% ROI (free tournament)
MMA Week Results = 150% ROI (yay!)
Total ROI For The Week = -42.53% ROI

January ROI = -32.34% ROI
2017 ROI = -32.34% ROI
Lifetime ROI = 9.16% ROI

In today's article I want to explain the difference between two types of players that you will be drafting on your fantasy teams. This concept is relevant in every sport and it is a foundational concept that you want to understand if you want to become a good fantasy sports player.

The concept is high floor vs high ceiling players.

The types of players that you want to draft for your fantasy team depends on the type of contest you are competing in. The higher your chances are at finishing in a cash position the more safety and security you want in your players. The lower your chances are at finishing in a cash position the more chances you will need to take in your selection.

The safest players in fantasy sports are known as high floor players. So what exactly is a high floor player?

All fantasy players accumulate fantasy points for each contest they are a part of. If you look at their historical performance from their previous contests you will see how many fantasy points they scored.

A fantasy player that you can count on a certain minimum amount of fantasy points even on a bad day is what is known as a high floor player. Stephen Curry is an example of a high floor player. Over his last ten games, the lowest amount of fantasy points that he has scored on DraftKings is 28.75 points.

The risker players in fantasy sports are known as high ceiling players. So what exactly is a high ceiling player?

A fantasy player who is capable of scoring a very low amount of fantasy points on a giving day, but also capable of scoring a very high amount of fantasy points on a giving day is considered a high ceiling player. Doug McDermott is an example of such a player. In his last ten games, the lowest amount of fantasy points that he has scored on DraftKings is 7.5. The highest amount is 43.5

One thing to keep in mind is that this is all relative to the value of the player. The value of the player is based on what the typical salary is for that player on a fantasy sports website.

For example Doug McDermott's last salary was $3,900 on DraftKings. 7.5 is a very low floor because at a salary of $3,900 that means he only scored 2 times his price value. You typically need on average 5 times a player's price in fantasy NBA to have a profitable night in cash contests. Stephen Curry's last salary was $9,000 on DraftKings. At that salary, his 28.75 is good for at least 3 times his price value. That gives him a higher floor than Doug McDermott.

Why is this important? It is important because you to know how to distinguish between high floor players and high ceiling players when you make your fantasy lineups. Certain types of contest dictates that you want to have a lot of high floor players. Other types of contests dictate that you want to take a chance on more high ceiling players.

For example, in any contest where you have a 50% chance of winning (i.e. head to head and 50/50 contests) you want to have a lot of high floor players. Your objective isn't to have the highest scoring team of the night. Your objective is to have a team that will outscore half the other teams competing that night. As a result, you want to pick players who are likely to score a certain number of points.

In a contest where you need to be in the top 20% to win, you want to take more chances on high ceiling players. Those players could bomb and sink your lineup. However, if those players have a big night, they could be the difference between you winning that night and you losing.

You also want to look at how many times they hit their lowest amount of points scored. A player who only has 1 game out of 10 that low is a much lower risk than a player who had 4 games out of 10 that low.

For high floor players, look for players like Russell Westbrook, James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, John Wall and Giannis Antetokounmpo. If you are looking at high floor mid salary players, look for players like Avery Bradley, Dwight Howard, Harrison Barnes, Kristaps Porzingis and Myles Turner.

For high ceiling players, look for players like Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns, Isaiah Thomas, Eric Bledsoe and Nikola Jokic. Some lower priced high ceiling players include Tim Frazier, Rajon Rondo, Taj Gibson, Ryan Anderson and J.J. Barea.

Finally, keep in mind projected minutes also play a role in determining whether a player has a high floor or a high ceiling. If a player is only projected to get 20 minutes that night, that player is not a high floor player. However, if a player is projected to get 30 or more minutes and is replacing a player in the starting lineup, that player is more likely to be considered a high floor player. Especially if that player has a history and a track record of scoring a higher than average number of points when having the opportunity to play more minutes.

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