Thursday, February 22, 2018

NBA Drafters, Draft & DraftKings Plays - Thursday February 22nd 2018

Picture By Erik Drost from United States (Russell Westbrook) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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We have a 6 game slate tonight of NBA action. Here's my approach to the three sites:

Drafters
Russell Westbrook is the number one option at PG. Next is James and Durant. Draft at SF first then PF. George is next at SF first then SG. Next is Embiid at PF then C. Curry is next at SG then PG followed by Beal at SG. Walker is next at PG followed by Simmons at SF then PG. Finally Howard at PF then C.

Draft
Russell Westbrook is the number one option tonight due to his high ceiling and gap compared to the other guards. James and Durant are next, followed by George and Embiid. Beal, Walker, Curry and Simmons are next and then for Center you can take Howard.
 
DraftKings 
DraftKings Plays will be added around 6pm

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Wednesday, February 21, 2018

PGA Draft and DraftKings plays - The Honda Classic

It's the 2018 Honda Classic love from Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

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It's the Honda Classic! The road to The Masters begins with this course so you have a lot of great golfers that are looking to compete. In particular there are a lot of great names on the European circuit that you want to pay attention to. One of the mistakes a lot of US players make is they forget the European guys and that can cost you.

This is a Par 70 course that's 7,140 yards. There are a lot of water hazards so accuracy is key. Trying to bomb your way through this course usually ends in disaster. Look for golfers with a solid approach game and solid putting.

Draft Strategy 
Ricky Fowler is the consensus number one option on Draft. He has the best odds to win according to Vegas. He won last year and had a top 10 finish the year before. He hasn't missed a cut here in the last 5 years he's played this event. He provides the safety that you're looking for with a number one pick and you have almost zero chance at getting him if you don't take him at number one.

Justin Thomas to me is where you want to go if you get the number 2 pick. Most drafts have him going 2. He is nowhere near as safe as Fowler as he's missed the cut 2 out of 3 times in the last 5 years. However , he has winning upside and his recent form is ridiculous. 7 out of 7 cuts made with 2 top 10 finishes. His worst finish in that span is 22nd. That form is difficult to ignore.

My next 3 is Rory Mcllroy, Sergio Garcia and Gary Woodland in that order. Garcia has the best course history out of the 3. However, I give the slight edge to Rory because he's the better golfer.

6th to 10th for me is Hatton, Fleetwood, Noren, Harman and Knox. Once again, do not sleep on these European golfers. They can play and any one of them can pull out a victory here. If you take out the Farmers open Brian Harman has the best form of any golfer in this field. He's made 6 out of 7 cuts and has made the top 10 in 5 out of the last 7 events.

Adam Scott fits very well on this course. I would definitely try to get some shares of him on Draft. Jason Dufner is also a great play. He's been going all over the map though. I've see him taken as high as the 3rd overall pick, which is WAY too high in my view. I've also seen him not drafted at all in a 6 person draft which is equally as insane. I'm fading Tiger Woods in 3 person contests. However, I will have some shares in 4 person, 6 Person and 8 person contests. Finally, people are sleeping on Russell Knox on Draft right now. I've been getting him in the 15th to 20th range in many drafts with no problem. He's a top 10 play this weekend in my view.

DraftKings Plays
Ricky Fowler is definitely in play for me this weekend. However, it's pretty rare that a golfer wins a tournament back to back so I will have no more than 20% of my lineups with him in it. Rory was only 8% owned last week. I don't mind taking some more shots with him this week. I may play Justin Thomas if I can fit him in but he's not a must play for me. I expect Sergio Garcia to be the chalk in the top tier pricing. He's a good play but I'm going to fade him and hope he misses value. Noren is just priced too high for me. I can't pay over 10k for him especially when the only time he played here he missed the cut.

My favorite play in the 9k range is Tommy Fleetwood. He didn't perform as well as I expected better but I don't mind going back to him this week and hoping his last week's performance takes others off him. Gary Woodland will be owned but he's fine. I absolutely want exposure to Russell Knox this weekend at $9,000.

Like last week the mid range is once again loaded. Adam Scott is someone I will have at least 50% exposure to at $7,700. I don't mind me some Tiger Woods at $8,200. I like Brian Harman at $8,900 if I can fit him in. I like Rafael Cabrera-bello this week at $8,100. I also like Russell Henley at $7,70].

There's some good value in the value tier of pricing as well. Patton Kizzire is absolutely in play for me at $7,300. I like Graeme McDowell at $7,300. Chris Kirk at $7,200 is in play. I like Billy Horschel at $7,100. I also like Ian Poulter at $7,200.

If you are looking for punts take a look at Wesley Bryan at $6,800. Look at Sean O'Haire at $6,800. Also, take a look at Morgan Hoffman at $6,700.


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Sunday, February 18, 2018

MMA UFC Plays - UFC Fight Night 126

"The Cowboy" is in the Main Event tonight in UFC Fight Night 126

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We have a 12 fight card on UFC Fight Night 126. Since this has been a pretty busy weekend for me, I'm just going to give you my ratings for each fighter tonight as follows:

  • 4 stars - Love them as a play this event.
  • 3 stars - Like them as a play this event.
  • 2 stars - Might not play them. If I do, I'll play them as a one off.
  • 1 star - I will not play this fighter at all this event.
Let's start with the top tier fighters $8,600 and above
  • Jared Gordon $9,300 - 2 stars
  • Sage Northcutt $9,200 - 3 stars
  • Oskar Piechota $9,100 - 3 stars
  • James Vick $9,000 - 4 stars
  • Geoff Neal $8,900 - 2 stars
  • Alex Morono $8,800 - 4 stars
  • Brandon Davis $8,700 - 2 stars
  • Thiago Alves $8,600 - 3 stars
Next, let's look at the mid tier fighters, which are priced from $7,700 to $8,500
  • Lucie Pudilova $8,500 - 1 star
  • Donald Cerrone $8,400 - 3 stars
  • Marcin Tybura $8,300 - 2 stars
  • Joby Sanchez $8,200 - 1 star
  • Roberto Sanchez $8,000 - 2 stars
  • Derrick Lewis $7,900 - 3 stars
  • Yancy Medeiros $7,800 - 2 stars
  • Sarah Moras $7,700 - 1 star
Finally, let's look at the value tier fighters priced $7,600 and below
  • Curtis Millender $7,600 - 1 star
  • Steven Peterson $7,500 - 3 stars
  • Joshua Burkman $7,400 - 1 star
  • Brian Camozzi $7,300 - 3 stars
  • Francisco Trinaldo $7,200 - 1 star
  • Tim Williams $7,100 - 2 stars
  • Thibault Gouti $7,000 - 1 star
  • Diego Ferreira $6,900 - 2 stars
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

PGA Draft and DraftKings Plays - Genesis Open

It's the Genesis Open Live from Los Angeles California!
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It's the Genesis Open Live from the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles California. This is a long course, Par 71, 7322 yards. Top 70 and ties advance after the 2nd round. If more than 78 golfers make the cut, those tied for the final spot will the MDF rule applied to them and will not play the final two rounds.

Draft Strategy
On Draft I like to keep it simple and target the golfers who have the best Vegas Odds to win the tournament. I will also look at course history, recent form and strokes gained statistics.

Dustin Johnson is without question my number one pick on Draft. He's pretty much everybody else's number one pick too. I haven't had a single draft where he wasn't taken number one. Don't be cute. If you have the number one pick take Johnson. Jordan Spieth has been going 2 or 3 in most drafts. I have him 2nd on my list. Rory Mcllroy is my 3rd pick. He's been going anywhere from 4th to 8th in most of my drafts. After that it's Justin Thomas followed by Phil Mickelson.

6th to 10th for me is Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Chez Reavie, Daniel Berger and Thomas Pieters. That's my top 10 for Draft.

Some other golfers that I want to point out. I have Tiger Woods 11th. He's been going anywhere from 9tj to 20th in my drafts. Bubba Watson I have 16th, which means I'm fading him in 3 man contests. He's got really good course history but he hasn't finished better than 35th in his last 5 events. He's been goik g in the 30s so if you want him in the larger drafts you should be able to get him. 

If you want Mark Leishman on Draft you're going to have to put him in the top 10. His recent form is great but his course history hasn't been that hot. I'm not willing to invest a top 10 pick in him. Pat Perez has been going in the late teens to early 20s. I have him 21st. However I haven't been getting him because there's been other golfers I like more with better course history that I've been able to get like Branden Grace, Bubba Watson and Chez Reavie.

Draftkings Plays
If you're only playing one lineup in GPP you have a really tough decision to make. Dustin Johnson is in such a fantastic spot. Not playing him seems like a terrible decision. The problem is he's going to be so highly owned that you kind of have to fade him in GPP. I'm going to keep it simple, play him in 50% of my lineups and fade him in the other 50%.

Other than Johnson I really have no interest in most of the top tier on DraftKings. The high pricing combined with mediocre course history makes them unplayable to me in a salary cap format. The one guy I am willing to take some shots on above 10K is Rory Mcllroy. I expect him to be at about 10% so I'll go 20% and be slightly ahead of the field.

Tommy Fleetwood at $9500 has no course history here. However, his recent form has been on fire. I'll have some exposure but not looking to do anything more than match the field with him. Tiger Woods, I'll play in 1 out of 10 lineups but that's about it.

The mid tier is what I believe will make or break us this weekend. I am completely fading Pat Perez and Mark Leishman on DraftKings. It's risky with their recent form but I don't like their course history here and you have to take some chances in GPP.

I LOVE Chez Reavie this week and will have massive exposure to him. Even more than Dustin Johnson. Brendan Steele is safe with top 10 upside. I'll have decent exposure to him. I'm also all over Jason Kokrak. He's in a great spot with a great price and won't be too highly owned.

Other Golfers I will have exposure to include Ollie Schniederjans, Charles Howell, Patrick Cantlay, Jhonattan Vegas, Charley Hoffman and Keegan Bradley.

If you are looking for cheap punts take a look at
Scott Brown for $7,000. He came in 2nd last year here. Martin Laird at $6,900 has an 8th and 11th place finish the last two years. Brandon Harkins at $6,800 has great recent form. I also like Cameron Triangle at $6,700.

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Tuesday, February 13, 2018

NBA Drafters Draft and DraftKings plays - Tuesday February 13th 2018

We have a 6 game slate of NBA games today!


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Will Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony play? That's the question that we need to answer as that has HUGE implications on our strategy on all 3 sites. What we know right now is that both of them participated in the morning shootaround and are listed as a game time decision. The game starts at 8pm. On DraftKings that's too late to swap if younplsy non late swap contests. If you play late swap and/or Drafters/Draft all games will be available to swap except for Toronto vs Miami.

Drafters Strategy
On Drafters, I plan on building lineups based on my draft pick. I expect Westbrook will be picked early as if he is playing. In contests where I have a shot at him I'll assume he is playing. On contests where I don't have a chance I will draft as if he is not playing.

Small Forward has the biggest gap tonight. I'm targeting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lebron James, Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Demar Derozan in that order. Shooting Guard has the second biggest gap. I'm targeting James Harden, Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Demar DeRozan. Power Forward is actually a little weak tonight. I'm looking at Giannis and James of course. After them I would target some of the duel eligibility PF/C like Nikola Jokic and Clint Capela. For Center after Jokic, I like Karl Anthony Towns, Capela and Hassan Whiteside. Point Guard is my lowest priority after Russell Westbrook because it's pretty balanced. I like Harden, followed by Chris Paul.

Draft Strategy 
For Draft, Forward is my first priority so ABC and Lebron are my top options, followed by Harden and then Westbrook. After that, I want Butler, followed by George and then Jokic followed by Karl Anthony Towns. Chris Paul is next and then DeRozen.

Draftkings Strategy
I'm going to get at least 20% exposure to Russell Westbrook tonight. It's worth the risk as he could potentially have a big game with reduced ownership. I also want 20% of James Harden and Lebron James because of their high upside. Giannis Antetokounmpo is my favorite superstar tonight. I will have at least 40% ownership. I also want 40% ownership of Paul George as "Westbrook Insurance"

I want heavy ownership to Thon Maker tonight. John Henson is out tonight and the Hawks give up a lot of fantasy points to the Center position. The Spurs are in play tonight due to injuries. I like Gasol, Murray and Bertans the most. I like Steven Adams tonight especially if Westbrook doesn't play. However, even with Westbrook, Cleveland hasn't improved front court defense so he's in a good spot tonight. Finally, if you're playing GPP look for some low owned punts. I like Cedi Osman, JJ Berea and Justin Jackson

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Monday, February 12, 2018

NBA Drafters Draft and DraftKings Plays - Monday February 12th 2018

We have a 6 game slate of NBA action tonight!
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We have The Pistons vs The Pelicans and 5 other games on the slate tonight! Here is my breakdown for how to tackle this slate on Drafters, Draft and DraftKings.

Drafters
With the battle of Drummond vs Davis I actually like Embiid as the number one pick tonight on Drafters. He's in for a great matchup against the Knicks. The positions of SF and SG have a big gap tonight. For SF you want to try to get Kevin Durant or Ben Simmons. For SG target Stephen Curry or Lou Williams. Point guard, Power Forward and Center are about even tonight after the options that I already named. Other players you want to take a look at are Blake Griffin, Jrue Holiday, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, Zach LaVine, Enes Kanter, Ricky Rubio and Michael Beasley

Draft
For Draft, the positions are pretty even tonight. I would focus on best available drafting tonight. My top 10 players are Embiid, Curry, Durant, Davis, Griffin, Drummond, Simmons, Jrue Holiday, Dinwiddie  Jordan.

Draftkings
I expect Drummond and Davis to have ownership tonight. I like Embiid. He has a better matchup, equal upside and lower expected ownership. I also like Blake Griffin as a pivot off Drummond. Royce O'Neill gets the start tonight in Utah with Rubio out. I like him and Donovan Mitchell tonight. I don't like the Gasol matchup but with no Aldridge he's absolutely in play tonight. I want a little bit of exposure to Curry and Durant but blowout risk is a concern. I also want them in separate lineups not together. Zack Lavine is in a great spot tonight. So is Spencer Dinwiddie. Finally, i want some Kevon Looney with Draymond Green out.

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Saturday, February 10, 2018

MMA UFC DraftKings Plays - UFC 221

UFC 221 is here! Here is my breakdown of the fighters on this card!


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We have a 12 fight card on UFC 221. This really isn't that exciting of a PPV for me, especially now that the Main Event is essentially a non-title match. If you haven't heard Yoel Romero failed to meet weight. As a result, if he wins this fight he is not eligible to win the title. So while I personally will be skipping watching this event, I certainly will be playing some MMA lineups on DraftKings!

In this article I take all 24 fighters and divide them into 3 tiers by salary. Each tier has 8 fighters. I then give that fighter a ranking from 1 to 4 stars. Here's how that ranking works:
  • 4 stars - Love them as a play this event.
  • 3 stars - Like them as a play this event.
  • 2 stars - Might not play them. If I do, I'll play them as a one off.
  • 1 star - I will not play this fighter at all this event.
Let's start with the top 8 fighters salary wise, which is $8,500 and Higher:
  • Tai Tuivasa $9,300 4 stars. Bam Bam is undefeated with a 100% knockout rate. While anything can happy at heavyweight, I will definitely have good exposure to him.
  • Isreal Adesanya $9,200 2 stars. If you're playing 10 or more lineups, I don't mind you getting some exposure to Adesanya. He's the biggest favorite on the card and has the greatest odds to finish the fight. However, fighters making their debut have higher risk and if you're playing a lower amount of lineups, there's other fighters with less risk.
  • Tyson Pedro $9,100 4 stars. Pedro matches up very well in this fight. He's the 2nd biggest favorite and the third biggest favorite to finish his fight. Play him with confidence.
  • Alex Volkanovski $8,900 3 stars. Alex The Great throws at a rapid pace and has wrestling upside as well. In his 3 UFC fights he's scored over 100 points in all 3 of them and 2 out of 3 were decisions! His opponent is pretty good though, which is why I cannot make him a 4 star play this weekend.
  • Li Jingliang $8,800 4 stars. Li is my favorite play of the weekend. "The Leech" throws at a fast pace and has one of the highest floors on the card if you look at his DraftKings logs. On top of that, a lot of people think Jake Matthews is going to win. This is perfect for GPP purposes because we can get Li at reduced ownership.
  • Jose Quinonez $8,700 3 stars. I think Quinonez is a good play this weekend. A lot of people think Teruto Ishihara is going to win. However, Ishihara is susceptible to takedowns and Quinonez can score takedowns. A 100+ point decision victory is certainly a possibility and you can get him at lower ownership.
  • Ross Pearson $8,600 1 star. I got Pearson winning this fight. However, I have zero interest in him from a DraftKings perspective. His DraftKings logs look like the pit of misery. Dilly Dilly!
  • Dong Hyum Kim $8,500 2 stars. I like Kim to win this fight. However, he's not somebody you need to have in my view. If he helps me differentiate my favorite lineup, I'll play him but other than that I will pass.
Next, let's move on to the mid tier, which is priced between $7,800 and $8,400
  • Curtis Blaydes $8,400 3 stars. A lot of people like Mark Hunt. However, if you're telling me I can get the favorite in the fight with the 2nd best DraftKings logs on the entire PPV and I can get him at low ownership? Count me in for that. I can't make him a 4 star play because Mark Hunt is certainly capable of winning this fight. However, Blaydes to me is the better play.
  • Luke Rockhold $8,300 3 stars. Rockhold is a strong and solid play especially now that Romero failed to make weight. The only reason why I can't give him 4 stars is ownership. I expect Rockhold to be highly owned and it's very possible that he gets a quick 100 point win, which could make him not necessarily a need to own to win a GPP.
  • Daiche Abe $8,200 2 stars. I usually like taking a fighter in the opening fight because they are usually low owned. However, this one is too close to call. If I had to pick a winner, it would be Abe but this is one that anybody can win.
  • Ben Nguyen $8,100 4 stars. I LOVE Nguyen at this price point. He's the underdog, which I like. He strikes at a great pace. He defends takedowns well. If this fight goes the distance and the odds right now indicate it will, I like his chances a lot more than I like Formiga at picking up the win.
  • Jussier Formiga $8,100 2 stars. I might play him in one lineup as a hedge against Nguyen who I may potentially have a lot of ownership in. He does have the ability to win this fight by submission. However, that's really the only way I see him winning this fight.
  • Luke Jumeau $8,000 2 stars. Same is Abe. This fight is so close to call it's tough to really pick anybody in it. If I had to pick one, I say he loses by decision. Will only play him if he fits and helps me differentiate my lineup.
  • Yoel Romero $7,900 1 star. I have absolutely zero interest in Romero. He failed to make weight. He won't be able to win the title anymore. He's facing a man who I believe to be a far superior opponent. He doesn't have high scoring upside. Plus he's expensive compared to what he's likely to score even if he wins. No thanks.
  • Mark Hunt $7,800 2 stars. I definitely like Blaydes to beat Hunt tonight. However, you can't count this guy out by any stretch of the imagination. So if he fits in some of my lineups, I may have some limited exposure.
Finally, let's cover the final tier, which has fighters that are $7,700 and below:
  • Damien Brown $7,700 2 stars. I like Kim to win this fight but I'm certainly not enthusiastic about that pick. Brown throws at the faster pace and has more submission upside so you can certainly play him if he fits in your lineup. 
  • Mizuto Hirota $7,600 2 stars. His opponent is a fighter that I have the least amount of confidence that they live up to my pick to win. Hirota has a decent price that will allow him to fit in your lineups. I wouldn't go crazy with exposure but I don't mind playing him if he fits.
  • Teruto Ishihara $7,500 2 stars. A lot of people like Ishihara to win. Since I like Quinonez, I probably will not have any shares of Ishihara. However, people aren't crazy. He does have a chance to win and probably has one of the best chances of winning in this tier. So I can see the logic in playing him, ESPECIALLY in cash games if you play those (I don't).
  • Jake Matthews $7,400 2 stars. Pretty much the same take as the one I gave on Ishihara. I like Jingliang a lot more so I probably won't have any shares on him. However, people like him for a reason so if you don't have a strong take on Jingliang I certainly see the logic of getting Matthews exposure.
  • Jeremy Kennedy $7,300 2 stars. I'll probably have decent exposure to Kennedy even though I really like Volkanovski. He has great wrestling upside, which is exactly the type of fighter I like to have on DraftKings. Plus you're going to have to play somebody down here if you want to build a decent lineup. It also doesn't hurt that he's undefeated.
  • Saparbek Safarov $7,100 1 star. I have no interest. 
  • Rob Wilkinson $7,000 2 stars. I think he gets crushed. However, I'll have at least one share of him. He's facing a fighter making their UFC debut and sometimes those fighters underperform. Wilkinson is the type of play that can make a chalk lineup unique and could potentially help you take down a GPP if the unexpected happens.
  • Cyril Asker $6,900 1 star. I personally have no interest in Asker. However, it's a heavyweight fight and in those fights anything can happen. So if you want to play him as a punt, there's worse plays you could make.
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