Tuesday, December 12, 2017

NBA Draft Plays - Tuesday December 12th

We have a 7 game slate of NBA action on Draft tonight. Here are the contests I'm targeting and the players that I'm looking at.

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Tonight we have a 7 game slate of NBA action. Draft has the following contests: Head to Head, 3 Person Contests, 6 Person Contests, Dream Team Contests and Tournaments. The tournaments include a 6 person contest ($5 6 entry max), a 5 person contet ($23 5 entry max) and a Head to Head contest ($110 single entry). I would recommend avoiding the tournament a except for the head to head if that's within your budget. The rest of the contests are in play. Just keep in mind you are going to be at a slight disadvantage if you do t have the number one pick because Lebron James floor and ceiling is so much higher than everyone else.

Last night I struck out completely not winning a single contest.

Let's take a look at the injury report:
  • Joel Embiid C (Questionable back)
  • John Wall G (Questionable knee)
  • Kevin Love F (Questionable hip)
  • Kawai Leonard F (Probable quad)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein C (Questionable back)
In terms of strategy tonight I would highly recommend limiting all of the above players to 10% of your contests. Even though DRAFT offers true late swap unlike the other fantasy sites you are still taking a risk with these players because of the opportunity cost. If you draft Embiid and he doesn't play you're replacing a 1st round player with a 5th or 6th round player and now you are behind. The only way I would exceed 10% ownership is if one of these guys fall to the 5th round.

For Head to Heads and 3 person contests center is pretty stacked tonight so I would try and fill the other positions first and leave center for the 4th or 5th round. For 6 person contests you want to target center within the first 2 rounds as there is a huge drop off after that. There's also a big drop off at guard after the first 5 options so if you don't get one of them you would be better off waiting and trying to fill the other positions first.

Since 6 person contests are the largest tonight I'm going to provide a breakdown of the players I am targeting. I will provide 5 tiers of players with each tier having 6 players each. Also as a brand new feature I'm going to provide some Dream Team targets based on matchups tonight.

Tier 1
  • Lebron James F
  • Joel Embiid C
  • Andre Drummond C
  • Karl-Anthony Towns C
  • Ben Simmons G
  • Kristaps Porzingis F
Tier 2
  • Jimmy Butler G
  • John Wall G
  • Kevin Love F
  • Bradley Beal G
  • Dennis Schroder G
  • TJ Warren F
Tier 3
  • LaMarcus Aldridge F
  • Will Barton F
  • Spencer Dinwiddle G
  • Tobias Harris F
  • Zach Randolph F
  • Reggie Jackson G
Tier 4
  • Andrew Wiggins F
  • Jeff Teague G
  • Brandon Ingram F
  • Kawhi Leonard F
  • Enes Kanter C
  • Lonzo Ball G
Tier 5
  • Courtney Lee G
  • Rondae Hollis-Jefferson F
  • Otto Porter F
  • Gary Harris G
  • Pau Gasol C
  • Willie Cauley-Stein C

And finally here are some players that I am looking at on Dream Team based on average performance, Vegas implied totals and opposing defense matchup (Defense vs Position and Defensive Real Plus Minus)

Guards
  • Dennis Schroeder
  • Lonzo Ball
  • Reggie Jackson
  • De'aaron Fox
Forwards 
  • LaMarcus Aldridge
  • TJ Warren
  • Kawhi Leonard
  • Tobias Harris
Centers
  • Joel Embiid 
  • Andre Drummond
  • Karl-Anthony Towns

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Monday, December 11, 2017

NBA DraftKings Plays - Monday December 11th 2017

We have a 6 game slate of NBA action tonight on DraftKings. Here are the players that I am targeting for my cash and GPP lineups tonight.

Picture By Erik Drost from United States (Russell Westbrook) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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Tonight we have a 6 game slate of NBA action on DraftKings. Here are the players that I will be building my lineups with tonight:

Top Tier ($9,200 and Above)
  • James Harden PG/SG $11,600 (GPP)
  • Russell Westbrook PG $11,000 (Cash & GPP)
  • Kevin Durant SF/PF $10,900 (Cash & GPP)
  • DeMarcus Cousins PF/C $10,700 (Cash & GPP)
Middle Tier ($5,000 to $8,300)
  • DeMar DeRozen SG/SF $8,200 (GPP)
  • Chris Paul PG/SG $8,100 (Cash & GPP)
  • Lou Willaims PG/SG $7,600 (GPP)
  • Dwight Howard C $7,500 (Cash & GPP)
  • Draymond Green PF/C $7,400 (Cash & GPP)
  • Jayson Tatum SF/PF $6,000 (GPP)
  • Kris Dunn PG/SG $6,100 (Cash & GPP)
  • Steven Adams C $5,900 (GPP)
  • Rajon Rondo PG $5,800 (Cash & GPP)
  • Danilo Gallinari SF/PF $5,300 (Cash & GPP)
  • Jeremy Lamb SG/SF $5,000 (Cash & GPP)
  • Marcus Smart SG/SF $5,000 (Cash & GPP)
Value Tier ($4,900 and Below)
  • Trevor Ariza SG/SF $4,700 (GPP)
  • Eric Gordon SG $4,700 (GPP)
  • Al-Farouq Aminu SF/PF $4,600 (Cash & GPP)
  • E'Twaun Moore SG/SF $4,500 (GPP)
  • Jonas Valanciunas C $4,400 (GPP)
  • Terry Rozier PG/SG $4,100 (Cash & GPP)
  • Frank Kaminsky PF/C $4,000 (GPP)
  • Evan Turner SG/SF $3,800 (GPP)
  • Milos Teodosic PG/SG $3,800 (GPP)
  • Meyers Leonard PF/C $3,800 (GPP)
  • JaVale McGee C $3,000 (GPP)
  • Zach Collins PF/C $3,000 (GPP)
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NBA Draft Plays - Monday December 11th 2017

Tonight on Draft we have a 6 game slate of NBA action. Check out which contests I will be targeting tonight and which players I will be looking at drafting.

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It's Monday night and we have a 6 game slate of NBA contests to compete in tonight. Draft is currently offering head to head contests, 3 player contests, 6 player contests, dream team contests and tournaments. There is a 6 person tournament ($5 6 entry max), a 3 person tournament ($23 2 entry max) and a head to head tournament ($110 single entry). I would stay away from the 6 person tournament unless you are already profitable in tournaments. Stick to the 3 person or head to head if those amounts are within your budget. Otherwise, avoid tournaments tonight and stick with the regular contests. I will be playing all of the regular contests tonight.

Friday was the last time I played NBA on Draft. I won 66% of my head to head contests and 28% of my 3 person contests. I was also eliminated from a head to head tournament. So I was not profitable on Draft. Lifetime I currently have a 580% positive ROI on the site. So even though it hasn't been a great last couple of weeks on Draft, I am still WAY ahead of what I initially put into the site.

Let's take a look at the injury report:
  • James Harden G (probable left calf)
  • Anthony Davis F (questionable left adductor)
  • Paul George F (questionable calf)
  • Draymond Green F (probable shoulder)
  • Al Horford C (questionable right knee bruise)
At this point I expect Harden and Green to play so I will not be reducing my exposure to them. Davis and Green I am a little concerned about them playing. So I will be limiting them to less than 10% of my drafts. Horford I do not expect him to play tonight so I will not be drafting him in my contests tonight.

Here's a breakdown of which contests I'm playing tonight:
  • 33% Head to Head
  • 33% 6 Person Contests
  • 22% 3 Person Contests
  • 12% Dream Team Contests
  • 0% Tournaments
As for drafting strategy tonight, the guard position is definitely the most talented rich position tonight. Getting Kevin Durant tonight puts you at a huge advantage, ESPECIALLY if Anthony Davis or Paul George misses tonight. While I wouldn't necessarily pass on Harden or Westbrook to get him there is merit to trying very hard to get KD. I would try my best to get Kevin Durant in all contest types tonight. Also, for any contest larger than head to head, if you do not fill up your forward positions from the first two draft tiers tonight, I would suggest waiting until round 5 to get a forward or round 4 and 5 if you don't get any forwards at all.

So let's take a look at which players I'm targeting tonight. Since 6 person is the highest, I will do 5 tiers of players with each tier having 6 players each.

Tier 1
  • James Harden G
  • Russell Westbrook G
  • Kevin Durant F
  • DeMarcus Cousins C
  • Chris Paul G
  • Damian Lillard G
Tier 2
  • Anthony Davis F
  • Paul George F
  • Marc Gasol C
  • Draymond Green F
  • DeMar DeRozen G
  • Kyle Lowry G
Tier 3
  • Dwight Howard C
  • DeAndre Jordan C
  • Klay Thompson G
  • Jayson Tatum F
  • Kemba Walker G
  • CJ McCollum G
Tier 4
  • Tyreke Evans G
  • Kris Dunn G
  • Lou Williams G
  • Carmelo Anthony F
  • Clint Capela C
  • Jaylen Brown F
Tier 5
  • Steven Adams C
  • Danilo Gallinari F
  • Al-Farouq Aminu F
  • James Johnson F
  • Lauri Markkanen F
  • Serge Ibaka F
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Thursday, December 7, 2017

NBA Draft Plays - Thursday December 7th 2017

Tonight on Draft we have a 4 game NBA slate to play with. Check out which contests I am targeting and which players that I am looking to draft in my lineups.

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It's Thursday night and tonight we have a 4 game slate of NBA action to work with. Draft is offering head to head contests, 3 person contests, 6 person contests, dream team contests and tournaments. There was a head to head tournament for $5 that was offered this morning with a 2 entry max but that sold out and as of this article I don't see them doing another one. 

Definitely make sure you check in the morning because what they offer in the morning they may not necessarily offer in the afternoon. The only downside is those teams you Draft in the morning you're going to be on your own. However, hopefully you have been paying attention to the types of players I'm selecting and you can put together your own player pool.

The tournaments that they have now are a 3 person Draft tournament ($5 with 3 entry max), a 5 person Draft tournament ($23 with 3 entry max) and a $110 head to head tournament (single entry). The $5 3 person tournament is almost full and I don't know if they are going to do another one. So jump all over that if you have enough time to get in before it fills up.

Tuesday night was a pretty bad night for the most part. The only positive is that I advanced in a 3 person tournament, which I also advanced yesterday as well. I'm currently in round 3 and I played 3 entries so I need to get at least 2nd place to break even. 1st place will guarantee me profit so hopefully I take down first tonight. All my other games I lost.

Here's my breakdown of where I'm putting my money tonight:
  • 50% Head to Head Contests
  • 25% 3 Person Contests
  • 15% 6 Person Contests
  • 10% Dream Team Contests
Tonight's player pool will consist of 5 tiers, each tier having 6 players each.

Tier 1
  • Russell Westbrook G
  • James Harden G
  • Joel Embiid C
  • Ben Simmons G
  • Bradley Beal G
  • Carmelo Anthony F
Tier 2
  • Chris Paul G
  • TJ Warren F
  • Donovan Mitchell G
  • Otto Porter Jr F
  • Clint Capela C
  • Lonzo Ball G
Tier 3
  • Brandon Ingram F
  • Spencer Dinwiddle G
  • Robert Covington F
  • Steven Adams C
  • Rondae Hollis-Jefferson G
  • Rudy Gobert C
Tier 4
  • DeMarre Carroll F
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope G
  • Derrick Favors F
  • JJ Reddick G
  • Dario Saric F
  • Larry Nance Jr F
Tier 5
  • Joe Ingles F
  • Markieff Morris F
  • Tyson Chandler C
  • Caris LeVert G
  • Marcin Gortat C
  • Julius Randall F
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Wednesday, December 6, 2017

MMA DraftKings Picks - Saturday December 9th 2017

UFC Fight Night 123 Swanson vs Ortega. Here is my full card breakdown of the fighters that will be appearing on this card on DraftKings.

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It's UFC Fight Night 123 live from Fresno, California! In the Main Event we have a very exciting Featherweight top contender's contest in which Cub Swanson takes on Brian Ortega!

Last weekend I did pretty good on The Ultimate Fighter finale card. However, I got crushed on the Pay Per View. I did get most of the fights right on the PPV. I nailed the bottom and the top of the card. However, it was the middle of the card that would be my undoing and I had too much exposure to the middle of the card in my lineups so that ultimately killed me.

In taking a look at this card, most of the card seems pretty straight forward. The bottom of the card there is a very clear consensus of who is going to win most of the fights. Where the uncertainty lies is in the top of the card. For cash games, I would focus on building my lineups with mostly fighters on the bottom of the card. The Main Event is certainly stackable in cash as well. In fact, the last time Swanson fought, I stacked his fight and was able to get over 200 points. The top of the card is where you can take your shots in GPP lineups.

I have divided the fighters into 3 tiers based on pricing. They are as follows:
  • Top Tier - $8,600 and Above
  • Mid Tier - $7,700 to $8,500
  • Value Tier - $7,600 and Below
Let's begin!

Top Tier Fighters - $8,600 and Above

Jason Knight $9,300 (Cash & GPP) - Knight is an aggressive fighter with power in his hands and a solid ju-jitsu ground game. That's exactly the type of fighter I like to target on DraftKings. It's great to build your lineups with fighters who have multiple paths to victory. He's a sizable favorite (-310). He has good odds to finish this fight (+145). He's scored over 100 in 2 of his last 5 fights and over 70 in 4 of his last 5 fights. He is a huge favorite among UFC fans (86% predict he will win). The only concern I have with him is he is very hittable on the feet and we found that out in his last fight when he got knocked out by Ricardo Lamas in the first round. Lamas though is a much better fighter than Benitez and that fight was basically a pickem by Vegas. I like Knight in all formats this weekend.

Eryk Anders $9,200 (GPP) - I was all over "Ya Boy" when he made his UFC debut in July against Rafael Natel. He was a late replacement in that fight, but he came through in a big way getting the knockout in the 1st round. I like Anders because he's an excellent athlete (played football for the Alabama Crimson Tide) he's strong and he hits hard. With that said, he's still a very inexperienced fighter in the MMA world. His opponent is undefeated and does have wins over UFC fighters. I like Anders and will definitely have exposure to him in GPPs. However, there are much safer options for cash, especially when you have to pay $9,200 for him.

Trevin Giles $9,100 (GPP) - Giles is an excellent athlete with a solid gas tank and one punch power. He was impressive in his debut fight back in July racking up 5 takedowns and 6 advances. He's in the opening match, which usually goes low owned so that makes me like him even more as a GPP Play. He can finish with his hands and on the ground as he currently sports a 90% finish rate in his undefeated career. If he keeps this fight on the feet, he should have no problems with picking up the win. However his opponent is no joke on the ground, a black bet Jiu-Jitsu so Giles is not as safe as his odds may indicate and for the price, I'm going to stay away from him in cash.

Luke Sanders $9,000 (Cash & GPP) - Sanders is coming off his first loss and it was a tough one. He was dominating Iuri Alcantara in a pickem fight but got caught in a knee bar and it was a wrap. He's a good fighter though and I feel like this is a good spot for him to get back on track. I like him for DraftKings purposes because he is aggressive and throws a lot of significant strikes. This gives him both a decision path to victory as well as a knockout path to victory (+220 inside the distance odds). His opponent doesn't throw at a high volume, has zero ground game and has lost all of his fights in the UFC in a decision. Sanders should safely win by decision and score DraftKings points for his significant strikes giving him 100+ decision upside making him a good play in all formats.

Alex Perez $8,900 (Cash & GPP) - Perez is one of the top prospects out of California earning his way into the UFC on Dana White's Contender series picking up a 1st round submission victory. He landed some nice punch/kick combinations in that fight as well. He has a solid wrestling background and you know we love wrestlers in the DraftKings format. His opponent got completely dominated in a clean sweep 30-26 decision loss and I feel Perez should be able to dominate him as well as he is the highest favorite on the card. Although I generally don't like targeting debut fighters in cash, it's hard to pass up on the odds value that you get from the heaviest favorited fighter with only the 5th highest price on the card.

Iuri Alcantara $8,800 (Fade) - Iuri Alcantara burned me in a big way back in June. He was a pretty big favorite (-272) against Brian Kelleher who was making his UFC debut in Alcantara's home nation of Brazil. Kelleher pulled out the upset submission. I don't like Alcantara as a play on DraftKings for several reasons. The loss against Kelleher shows that he can't be trusted. Also, his DraftKings logs are very telling. He doesn't throw a lot of significant strikes. He doesn't get a lot of takedowns. So really his only path to scoring a lot of points is a submission victory. There's much better plays above and below him so he's a hard pass for me.

Davi Ramos $8,700 (Cash & GPP) - I like Ramos in all formats for this fight. He is an excellent submission grappler who can score takedowns in a variety of different ways. He has never been finished, both of his losses have come by way of a decision. So that makes him safe for cash. He is a huge favorite (-360) and we are getting great pricing on him because he's the 2nd biggest favorite but the 7th highest price. His opponent has 2 losses as well but both losses came by way of submission which is great for Ramos. I like him more for cash than I do for GPP because I'm concerned that if it goes to decision there is definitely a path to a low fantasy scoring decision win. However, I'm fine with him in either format.

Marlon Moraes $8,600 (Fade) - I have ZERO interest in Moraes. He's not a bad fighter. He dominated the World Series of Fighting Bantamweight division going undefeated However, so far in the UFC he has not looked like a good DraftKings fighter. He landed 44 significant strikes in his debut fight, a decision loss. In his decision win against Dodson he landed 45 significant strikes and 1 takedown. He is only a slight favorite in this fight. Not only that, but he just fought a month ago. He's a clear cut fade for me.


Mid Tier Fighters - $7,700 to $8,500

Merab Dvalishvili $8,500 (Cash & GPP) - Dvalishvili is making his UFC debut currently on a 6 fight winning streak. His last fight he scored a 15 second spinning back fist knockout over previously undefeated Raufeon Stots. He's taking on Frankie Saenz is coming off a 3 fight losing streak. I think he's safe for cash as his fight is currently -210 to surpass 2.5 rounds so that gives him a good floor to get 3 rounds in. Sanez has not scored a finish in his UFC career. He also has knockout upside as shown in his last fight as well as the Vegas inside the distance odds of +255. He's not somebody that you HAVE to play. However, if you got room in your lineup, I have no problem with playing him.

Liz Carmouche $8,400 (Fade) - Why Carmouche is the favorite in this fight blows my mind. Carmouche fought Alexis Davis back in 2013 and she was dominated. She couldn't stop Davis' leg kicks. She did get a hard shot against her in the 2nd round that cut her open but still got dominated. Since then she has gone 2-1 both wins decision victories as well as a decision loss to Meshia Tate. This fight has the 2nd highest odds to go pass 2.5 rounds (-270) and if as expected this fight goes to a decision, her ceiling is probably 60 points in a decision win and her floor is 30 points in a decision loss. At that price going up against a woman who has already beaten her, she is unplayable for me.

Scott Holtzman $8,300 (Cash & GPP) - I like Scott Holtzman in all formats this weekend. He's a great athlete having played baseball, football and hockey. He hits hard and is dangerous on the feet. He's got good cardio. He's great for cash because his fight is likely to go to a decision (-245 Over 2.5 odds). He throws a lot of significant strikes (averages 4.55 significant strikes landed per minute) so that increases his DraftKings points floor as well as his odds to score round points. He can also land takedowns, reverses and advances as you can see in his DraftKings logs. At $8,300 I believe he is one of the best values on the entire card and I will have a lot of exposure to him.

Benito Lopez $8,200 (GPP) - Lopez is an undefeated fighter coming out of Team Alpha Male making his UFC debut this weekend. He earned his contract by scoring a split decision victory over Steven Peterson on Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender series. In that fight he showed powerful striking but was definitely losing when the fight was on the ground. He's even odds and he throws a lot of significant strikes but I don't like the matchup against a solid Ju-Jitsu fighter. I wouldn't touch him in cash and wouldn't force him in GPP lineups but I don't mind playing him in some GPP lineups.

Cub Swanson $8,100 (Cash & GPP) - Swanson is an elite UFC fighter who is explosive and unpredictable. Since 2011 when he made his UFC debut he only has 3 losses, all to other elite level fighters. Ricardo Lamas who's #3 ranked in UFC featherweights. Frankie Edgar who is a former UFC Lightweight Champion. Max Holloway who is the current UFC Featherweight Champion. That's it. Everyone else he has defeated. I played him back in April against Lobov (stacked the fight in cash) and he scored an incredible 157 fantasy points on DraftKings with a 5 round decision victory. His style does open him up to be susceptible to submissions and his opponent like himself is a black belt Gracie Jiu-Jitsu specialist and is no joke. However, I think Swanson gets the decision win and I will have exposure to him in all formats. You can play him in cash by himself, stack him in cash with Ortega or play him in GPP. I'm locking the Main Event in 100% of my lineups, which means I'll have him, Ortega or both in every lineup I make this weekend.

Brian Ortega $8,100 (Cash & GPP) - Brian Ortega is one of the top up and coming fighters in the UFC. He's undefeated and sports the longest active winning streak among UFC featherweights. He's a black belt Gracie Jiu-Jitsu specialist who can win by knockout as well as by submission. However, he's not a fast finisher. All of his finishes in the UFC have come in the 3rd round. He has a dangerous ground game and while I don't believe he is as good of a striker as Swanson, he can certainly hold his own in that department. I like Swanson in this fight so I will definitely have less exposure to Ortega. However, I like Ortega in both formats, cash and GPP and I'm not opposed to a Main Event stack in cash.

Albert Morales $8,000 (Cash) - Morales has 9 fights on his resume going 7-2 with 1 No Contest. Both of his losses have come in the UFC but he was a big underdog in both of those contests. He is a powerful striker and has an aggressive style both standing up and on the ground. I like him in cash and you get a slight discount in odds value because he has even odds to win but you get a $100 discount. Between the slight discount and the odds to go the distance (-170 Over 2.5) he's fine as a cash play. I don't like him in GPP though because I am concerned that he may not have a lot of upside. He doesn't have good odds to finish (328 inside the distance) and if his DraftKings logs are any indication he doesn't have much decision win upside. So I will only be playing him in cash if I play him at all.

Darrell Horcher $7,900 (Fade) - Horcher is a decent fighter but I don't really like him in this matchup. He has the worst significant strikes defense percentage on this card (35.87%) and he's going up against an opponent who lands 4.55 significant strikes per minute. While he does defend takedowns well if a good wrestler gets him down he doesn't have much to offer in the way of a ground game. His upside is also very limited. I really don't see him getting more than at most 70 points in a decision victory as his upside and I personally have him losing this fight. So I have no interest.

Alexis Davis $7,800 (Cash & GPP) - If you tell me I can have a fighter who has already defeated his/her opponent before and I can have that fighter at a discount, you can sign me up for that. That's basically what you're getting with Davis. She's only $7,800 but she's already beaten Carmouche before. She's a great cash play because her fight has heavy odds to go the distance (-270 Over 2.5) and she lands a lot of significant strikes (4.5 SS per minute). She's also a great GPP play because more people like Carmouche both at Vegas (-175 favorite) and UFC fans (75% are picking Carmouche). So she should be much lower owned. A 70+ point decision win is certainly in play and at that price, I'll take it.

Frankie Saenz $7,700 (Fade) - Sanez has struggled in his most recent UFC fights. Out of his last 5 fights he's 2-3 with three consecutive losses including being knocked out. He's taking on a good prospect with a 6 consecutive win streak. Plus he's getting up their in age. That's not a strong recipe for success. There's other places that I would much rather like to spend my DraftKings salary.

Value Tier Fighters - $7,600 and Below

Aljamain Sterling $7,600 (Cash & GPP) - Sterling is in play for me in all formats and I will have good exposure to him. He has one of the best odds to price values on the entire card (currently only a 130 underdog). He's fighting an opponent who JUST fought a month ago. In 16 fights in his MMA career he has NEVER been finished and has only lost twice. He throws significant strikes at a good rate (lands 3.63 per minute) and has wrestling upside as well (averages over 2 takedowns per fight). He just screams PLAY ME so I'm going to do just that.

Chris Gruetzemacher $7,500 (Fade) - He's unplayable at this price. He's the 2nd biggest underdog on the entire card but he's priced at the 7th lowest price. All of his losses have come by way of submission and his opponent is an excellent submission grappler. Next!

Alejandro Perez $7,400 (GPP) - He's a somewhat big underdog (170) in a fight that only has small odds to go past 2.5 rounds (-120) against an opponent who has decent finishing odds (160 inside the distance). However, his opponent has been known to lose heavily favorite fights in the past. So while I certainly wouldn't play him in cash, I have no problems with taking some shots with him in GPP.

Carls John De Tomas $7,300 (Fade) - He got dominated in his debut fight against Nakoi Inoue. This fight will be no easier as he's getting one of the top prospects coming out of the West Coast USA. I'm not convinced he's UFC level so I will have no shares of him in my lineups.

Andre Soukhamthath $7,200 (Fade) - He throws a low rate of significant strikes. He has zero ground game. He's lost all of his fights in the UFC by decision. He's an easy pass for me this weekend.

Antonio Braga Neto $7,100 (GPP) - He his a solid Ji-Jutsu black belt specialist and while he is the clear underdog in this fight, he absolutely has a chance to win. His grappling skills would normally give him a high floor making him playable even in cash. However, he lacks a standup game and has been battered before in fights. Getting knocked out is a very real possibility making him a fade in cash. However, his grappling upside and the low ownership he will have as an opening card fighter makes him someone you definitely want at least some exposure to in GPPs.

Markus Perez $7,000 (GPP) - He's an undefeated skilled Brazilian fighter making his UFC debut. He won his most recent fight in impressive fashion scoring an arm triangle submission against a previously unbeaten fighter in the first round. He has a tough test against Anders and he's not somebody that you have to play. However, if you are looking for a punt to make room in your lineups, he is definitely worth consideration.

Gabriel Benitez $6,900 (GPP) - I really like his opponent and I also have plays that I like down in this price range so I will have no ownership of Benitez. However, I wouldn't be doing my job as a fantasy MMA writer if I told you to fade Benitez straight out. Knight is a very aggressive fighter and that absolutely opens the door for him to get hit. Benitez packs power especially with his feet and can strike all parts of the body. He's also a submission threat as well. So while I personally won't be playing him, if you want to play him as a GPP play, I don't have a problem with that.

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Tuesday, December 5, 2017

NBA DraftKings Plays - Tuesday December 5th 2017

We have a 3 game slate tonight of NBA action on DraftKings. Here are the players that I am building my lineups with.

Picture By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA (DeMar DeRozan) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons


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It's Tuesday night NBA action on DraftKings and we have a short 3 game slate to build our teams around. 3 game slates can be tricky. You don't have as many options as you would have on a normal slate. Therefore, you may have to take some chances. There's two ways you do this. You can build a team of players that will have decent ownership but leave lots of salary unused. Or you can take a chance on some bench punts in hopes that they happen to pay off in tonight's contests.

When building my teams I start with the Vegas over/under point totals. I use this as a baseline to try and identify where the scoring is going to come from tonight. Here are the Vegas point spreads and over/under totals as of the time I'm writing this:
  • Phoenix @ Toronto (-14) 222.5
  • Utah @ Oklahoma City  (-7.5) 197
  • Washington @ Portland (-6) 201.5
Based on the vegas statistics, the Suns vs the Raptors looks like the game to target. However, there's only one catch. The Raptors are currently 14 point favorites in this game. This means that Vegas is expecting this game to be a blowout. Targeting this game could pay off due to the high point total. However, it can also be risky. If it ends up being a blowout and the coaches pull their top players early, you could be stuck with a number of players who don't hit value. Alternatively, you can also target the bench players on these same teams, hope their is a blowout and hope your bench targets do well.

The other two games, Vegas projects to be closer games. However, they also have much lower point over/under totals. So that's the first decision you have to make tonight. Do you target the high scoring blowout risk game? Or do you target the low scoring games projected to be closer?

The next step is to analyze the players themselves. You want to take a look at the player, look at their stats to determine how they perform. Then you want to look at their matchup. Armed with that information, you can decide whether you want to use that player tonight.

I've divided the players into 3 tiers based on their DraftKings salary. For each player, I will highlight what my plans are for them tonight and why.

Top Tier: $8,000 and Above
  • Russell Westbrook ($11,000) PG - I'm fading Westbrook tonight in all formats because of the tough matchup against the Jazz and the fact that DraftKings still has his salary towards the middle of what it's been this season. He scored 36.5 DK points last time they played and at tonight's price that's not even 3.5x value. You can play him in cash games because he will be highly owned due to limited options. I'm doing a complete fade though.
  • Damian Lillard ($9,400) PG - Lillard's in play for me in all formats. His game is projected to be the closest game tonight so he has less risk. He's one of the most consistent value hitters on the slate tonight. 
  • Kyle Lowry ($8,700) PG and DeMar DeRozan ($8,500) SG - If I can fit them in for cash lineups I'll play them but they are more GPP only plays for me tonight due to the matchup. Concerned about the blowout risk
  • Paul George ($8,400) SF - I don't mind George tonight. While Jazz are a tough matchup George did hit value last time out. I'm not going out of my way to play him but if he fits, I'll put him in.
  • Devin Booker ($8,000) SG/SF - The Raptors aren't a tough matchup at all defensively. However, I am concerned about the potential blowout risk so Booker is a fade for me tonight.
Mid Tier: $5,000 to $7,600
  • Bradley Beal ($7,600) SG - Beal was terrible last week without John Wall. Maybe he gets his act together tonight, but I won't be around to find out. Fade.
  • Rudy Gobert ($7,300) C - He played 20 minutes last night in his debut back from injury. I'm fading in cash, but I might take some shots in GPP.
  • Jusuf Nurkic ($7,200) C - He's not safe for cash because he has the propensity to get into foul trouble, which has caused him to hit value less than 50% of the time so far this season. However, I like him a lot in GPP tonight. He's got a great matchup
  • Donovan Mitchell ($7,100) PG - He's looked really good as of late but he has a tough matchup tonight against Andre Robertson and he is at his highest salary that he has been all season. He's a fade for me tonight.
  • CJ McCollum ($7,000) PG/SG - He will be in consideration for GPP lineups that I don't play Lillard in tonight. Matchup is ok not great but he has upside.
  • Otto Porter ($6,900) SF/PF - He's ok. If he fits I'll play him.
  • Derrick Favors ($6,600) PF/C - I like Favors A LOT tonight even with Gobert back. Carmelo Anthony is a liability on defense. Favors should eat.
  • Carmelo Anthony ($6,500) SF/PF - Melo is my favorite play on the Thunder Big 3. Although the matchup is tough, DraftKings is basically BEGGING us to play him at 6.5K which is the lowest price he's had this year. He is the most consistent player at hitting value this season out of every player on the slate tonight and he has struggled as of late which should help limit his ownership. 
  • TJ Warren ($6,400) SF/PF - I have no interest in Warren tonight. OG Anunoby has a high DRPM and the Suns are expected to get blown out which could significantly limit his minutes and upside. Add the fact that he should be highly owned because of the Vegas Total and he's a fade for me tonight.
  • Steven Adams ($5,900) C - I don't mind Adams tonight. If he fits, I'll play him.
  • Ricky Rubio ($5,400) PG - He has a tough matchup tonight against Russell Westbrook. He's a fade for me.
  • Marcin Gortat ($5,200) C - Tough matchup against Nurkic. I have no interest.
  • Serge Ibaka ($5,000) PF/C - Although there is blowout risk, I do want some exposure to that game and Ibaka is one of the ways I will get it. He's got a great matchup tonight and is one of the most consistent options at hitting value in the front court tonight.
Value Tier $4,900 and Below

For the value tier I'm just going to list the players that I like.
  • Jonas Valanciunas ($4,800) C - I'm fine with him in all formats. Great matchup.
  • Alec Burks ($4,500) PG/SG - No Rodney Hood in the lineup and he has rapidly exceeded value every game he's played with Hood out. Hitting the LOCK button on this one.
  • The Phoenix Centers: Greg Monroe ($4,500) PF/C Alex Len ($4,400) and Tyson Chandler ($4,300) - GPP only plays
  • Jakob Poelti ($3,400) PF/C - GPP only. Status is questionable with an illness. I will swap to Pascal Siakam if he doesn't play. 
  • Tyler Ulis ($4,100) PG - Blowout risk but I don't mind taking my chances with him in any format because his salary is low.
  • Norman Powell ($4,000) SG/SF - I like him tonight because he should be able to get run whether it's a blowout or a competitive game since he comes off the bench.
  • Tomas Satoransky ($4,100) PG/SG - Has performed decent coming off the bench. I don't mind him in any format.
  • Fred VanVleet ($3,400) PG - Pure GPP punt flyer in case he gets garbage time run.
  • Josh Jackson ($4,000) SG/SF - Pure GPP punt flyer in case he gets garbage time run.
  • Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,200) SF/PF - Just found out he's been cleared to play 30+ minutes. So he's in play for me tonight.

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NBA Draft Picks - Tuesday December 5th 2017

We have a 3 game slate of NBA action on Draft. Here are the plays and contests I like for this slate tonight.

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It's Taco Tuesday and that means everyone who plays Draft tonight gets a free taco! I wish! We do get a 3 game NBA slate to play with though. Tonight we have head to head contests, 3 person contests, dream team and tournaments. We have a 3 person tournament for $5 (3 Entry max) and for $23 (2 entry max). There is a Head to Head for $110. I'm in favor of playing all of the contests tonight.

Last night wasn't a great night for me. I won 66% of my head to head contests. However I only won 12% of my 3 person contests and struck out in everything else.

Tonight's player pool will consist of 3 tiers of players. Each tier will have 5 players.

Tier 1
  • Russell Westbrook G
  • Damian Lillard G
  • Kyle Lowry G
  • DeMar DeRozan G
  • Paul George F
Tier 2
  • Bradley Beal G
  • Devin Booker G
  • Jusuf Nurkic C
  • TJ Warren F
  • Otto Porter F
Tier 3
  • Carmelo Anthony F
  • Derrick Favors F
  • Rudy Gobert C
  • Serge Ibaka F
  • Steven Adams C
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